FXUS62 KMFL 071940
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 PM EST MON DEC 7 2009
...WARM, HUMID DECEMBER CONTINUES...
.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE MOVED NORTH
FROM THE LAKE/PALM BEACH AREA THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING RECENTLY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MID TO LATE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS THE AREA...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. SO HAVE KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTERIOR AND PATCHY FOG TOWARDS THE COASTS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING INTERIOR...WITH VIS <1/4 MILE.
DECIDED TO ADDRESS THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
FOLLOWING SHIFTS CAN MONITOR OBS TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.
TUE-WED: WARMTH, HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS RIDGING
BUILDS INTO SOUTH FL. A FEW RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
EAST COAST. WARM DECEMBER TO CONTINUE. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 87-92
TUE AND LOWER 90S WED. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH
COUNTY.
THU: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS RIDGE IN PLACE ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT NEARS. KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTORMS...THOUGH THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FAR REMOVED AND A MID LEVEL CAP FORMS.
FRI AND BEYOND: WHETHER THE FRONT FULLY PASSES SOUTH FL IS IN
QUESTION. GFS SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON
WHILE THE LATEST ECWMF SHOWS IT STALLING OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW
KEPT THE TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS IN HAVING THE FRONT STALL OVER
THE AREA. EITHER WAY...NOT MUCH WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT AS ALL THE ENERGY WILL LIFT NE FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA. BY
THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SW STATES. SO A
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF COOL DOWN THU NIGHT/FRI WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY WARMING TEMPS, INCREASING HUMIDITY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY
OUT OF THE SOUTH...POSSIBLY AT OR ABOVE 15 KT ESP PALM BEACH
WATERS WED AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE. WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION ON FRIDAY IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP. RIGHT NOW KEPT WITH THE TREND OF
PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COULD SEE RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BELOW IS THE FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORD HIGHS FOR AREAS WITH
POTENTIAL RECORD HEAT:
WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY THURSDAY
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIAMI 86 86 - 1997 85 86 - 1896
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 89 - 1919 85 86 - 1997
WEST PALM BEACH 85 87 - 1948 85 86 - 1997
RECORD BREAKING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST ON
THU...BUT THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS/SHOWER
CHANCES WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. GFS/ENSEMBLE SHOWS MID 80S SO
DID NOT GO ANY FURTHER THAN THIS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 84 73 85 / - 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 84 76 85 / - 10 10 10
MIAMI 71 85 75 86 / - 10 10 10
NAPLES 65 84 70 83 / - 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
