FXUS62 KMFL 101134
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
634 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.AVIATION...FOG FORMATION ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAS
ADVECTED TO BOTH COASTS AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE TAFS. ONLY
CONCERN IS THAT WITH ADVECTION TYPE FOG SITUATIONS, IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT KMIA WOULD EVENTUALLY GET SOME FOG BUT MAY HAVE TO
AMEND EARLY IF IT NEVER OCCURS. AT ANY RATE, ALL FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z AS SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
FEW SHRA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN
THE TAFS AS IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WIND
WILL BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL REACH THE LAKE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL START AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY TONIGHT.
THEN LATER FRIDAY, THE FRONT STARTS IT'S MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AND A
DECREASE IN POPS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. MINIMAL POPS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT TO
NORTH FLORIDA LATER TUESDAY AND THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL
SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOT AS DEEP WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
APPROACH THAT THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AND CONSIDERING THE HIGH BEHIND
IT BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN.

BUT UNTIL THE FIRST FRONT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT, WE HAVE TO DEAL
WITH ANOTHER NEAR RECORD HIGH DAY TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN AREAS
BEING MAINLY AFFECTED. THE RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE 86 FOR PALM
BEACH, FORT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI. THE FCST CALLS FOR 86 AT FORT
LAUDERDALE WHICH IS A TIE AND 87 FOR MIAMI WHICH WOULD BREAK IT.
EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND
THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...SOUTHWEST WIND AT ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCEC
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WITH WINDS 15 TO 20
KTS AND SEAS TO 5 FT. THEN BY SUNDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS AND SLIGHT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  66  78  71 / 30 30 30 40 
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  68  80  72 / 20 20 30 40 
MIAMI            87  69  80  73 / 20 20 30 40 
NAPLES           82  63  78  65 / 30 20 30 40 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
     FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-
     FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT