FXUS61 KGYX 151455
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
955 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT CREATING A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES IN THE MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1008 MILLIBAR LOW VICINITY OF /KBTV/ BURLINGTON WILL TRACK EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUR COASTLINE BY DUSK. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ESTRIE AND BEAUCE IN SOUTHEAST QUEBEC THAT
WILL CROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE
I ADJUSTED POPS UP AND INCLUDED THE CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL INCH.
THERE WAS A SHALLOW WARM LAYER NOTED BTWN 3 AND 4 THSD FEET ON THE
MOUNT WASHINGTON PROFILE AND I INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SLEET ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS AS WELL. FURTHER SOUTH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PREV DISC...
WEAK LOW PRES OVER LK ONTARIO IS PRODUCING SOME WAA
ATTM...WHICH IS COINCIDING WITH A WEAK 500MB WAVE AND PRODUCING AN
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP...CURRENT RA/SN LINE SEEMS TO RUN JUST S OF A
LINE FROM K1P1-KIZG-KAUG...AND THIS WILL LKLY HOLD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AT LEAST. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE ME ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
VERY WIDELY SCT SHOWERS NOTED TO THE WEST ACROSS NY/VT...AS
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WEEK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER INTO THE AFTER...BEFORE IT SHIFTS SE LATE TODAY...ENDING
UP NEAR EASTPORT BY 00Z...WHERE IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...FOR TODAY...LOOKS LIKE SCT SHRA ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN...WHICH WILL BE VERY LIMITED SW OF KPWM...AND SHSN IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS /ALTHOUGH EVEN THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE SOME
SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AS MAXES CLIMB TO NEAR 40 THERE. GENERALLY
CLOUDY AS STRATUS HAS PRETTY MUCH INUNDATED THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WE START TO SEE THINGS SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW OVER DOWNEAST ME...BEGINS TO INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. THIS PROCESS LOOKS TO
HAPPEN FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
PRECIP IN THE CWA...HOWEVER BUILDING NW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD SPEED THE
CLEARING IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS..BUT COULD CREATE A SURGE OF
UPSLOP SHSN IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...AS MID-LVL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE INTENSIFYING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST.
UNCERTAINLY HERE LIES IN HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE MAKES IT OUT OF
THAT SYSTEM...A ND THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SN THE MTNS
ACTUALLY SEE. ONCE THE NW FLOW SETTLES IN COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM IN RAPIDLY. ALTHOUGH NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPSLOPE OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING WILL PROVIDE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH IT WILL BE SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COLDER THAN TODAY. THIS COUPLED WITH A STIFF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN/
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO 20 BELOW OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION
DROPS SOUTH AND WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN/
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS AS WELL AS CONTINUE THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GRADIENT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO INCREASE A BIT...THOUGH STILL
SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS. A MID ATLANTIC STORM LATE
IN THE WEEKEND NOW APPEARS TO BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND EXPECTING IT TO LOWER TO BLO 2K FT FOR A PERIOD
BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MIDDAY....THEN GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. &&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL BE HOISTING GALES STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS
NW WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WED.
LONG TERM...
GLW CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FREEZING SPRAY
THURSDAY...LOWERING TO SCA CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
LOWERING TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
