FXUS65 KTWC 082115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON WHICH IS THE LAST 
REMAINING ASPECT OF A DEPARTING WINTER STORM WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF 
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOMEWHAT DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL 
MOVE IN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH DRY CONDITIONS. BY LATE THIS 
WEEK...A SOMEWHAT MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A 
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY 
BUT MORE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...THINGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SETTLE DOWN ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. WE'RE STILL SEEING STRONG AND 
GUSTY WINDS TO THE EAST OF TUCSON IN GRAHAM/GREENLEE/COCHISE 
COUNTIES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY WEAKENS ALONG WITH 
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY FOR GRAHAM 
AND GREENLEE COUNTY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 3 PM. RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL 
TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION 
STATEMENT AWIPS HEADER PHXPNSTWC OR WMO ID NOUS45 KTWC. 

STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS ERN PIMA/SANTA 
CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES AS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HASN'T INFILTRATED 
THAT FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION BECOMING MORE OR 
LESS PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE 
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. BESIDES 
THE WIND OUR NEXT CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE 
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE SMALLEST 
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...HOWEVER THIS AREA 
DIDN'T SEE THAT MUCH RAINFALL WHICH IS A BIG NEGATIVE FOR FOG 
FORMATION. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW 
CONFIDENCE BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG SOUTH 
AND EAST OF TUCSON WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

BRIEF FLAT RIDGING MOVES IN FOR A TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID 
AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. DAYTIME 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THEN THE PACIFIC 
JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A WELL ESTABLISHED ZONAL AND MOIST  
WESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LATEST 
MODEL GUIDANCE FIELDS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION 
THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE 
FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AS 
DEEPER MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES 
THROUGH. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE  
GFS/ECMWF A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PERHAPS 
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THEN. BEST COURSE OF ACTION 
IS TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER END CHANCE POPS 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING ISSUES 
ETC.  

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AROUND 4-7K FT AGL SOUTH AND EAST 
OF KTUS THROUGH 04Z WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER 
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EAST OF TUCSON...THEN 
QUICKLY TAPER OFF AND BECOME LESS THAN 15 KTS THIS EVENING. 
OTHERWISE...SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT AGL 
WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT 
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ019-030.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON