FXUS62 KMFL 261040
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
540 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.AVIATION...
BRIEF IFR CIG/VSBY AT KPBI/KAPF JUST AHEAD OF CD FNT ROUGHLY
EXTENDING FM KFPR-KEGC. SOME -RA MOVG FM GUF OF MEX/FLA BAY NE AND
WILL AFFECT BROWARD/MIAMI DADE TERMINALS THRU 15Z. NO TSRA XPCTD
BUT SOME MVFR CIG PSBL BUT LIMITED AND NOT IN TAFS ATTM. SO...VFR
IN TAFS XCPT AT KPBI IFR SHUD END BY 14Z. SFC WNDS E COAST
TERMINALS LGT W-WNW 3-5 KTS BCMG NW ALL TERMINALS. AT KAPF LGT NE
3-5 KTS TO BCM NW AFT 15Z 8-10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT A
CLEARING TREND IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE CLEARING SKIES...COUPLED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL...
HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA...A AND DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHERWISE...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND IS LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF THE KEYS. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AS THIS REGION IS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY CURRENT
ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
WILL ONLY MAINTAIN MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE BASE
OF A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION -- WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...ALLOWING A STRONGER SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AS
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS USHER A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS SOUTHWARD.
SATURDAY MORNING STILL APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY HAVE SETTLED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING LATE ON FRIDAY...WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S...WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER UPPER STORM SYSTEM WHICH MAY
AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ALL WATERS EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE A MORE ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS
SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY FOR WINDS TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SCA WILL TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AS SEAS RISE IN THE GULF STREAM. OTHERWISE...
THERE ARE NO MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND VEER TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALLOW THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS STILL APPEAR TO BE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CANDIDATES FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HOWEVER...WITH AIR TEMPERATURES LIKELY ONLY REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY...AND JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER ON
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT CONDITIONS ARE TOO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASING
TREND IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  52  68  46 / 30 10 -  -  
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  57  72  52 / 40 10 -  -  
MIAMI            82  58  72  53 / 60 10 -  -  
NAPLES           75  54  69  46 / 20 -  -  -  

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
     FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR