FXUS61 KCLE 042357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FROM THE MIDDLE OF LAKE ERIE INTO
THE BUFFALO AREA AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. THIS FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
INTO THE REGION. 

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH CALL. SOME MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY SLIDE OVER THE REGION AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL ALSO HAVE
TO MONITOR THE STRATO-CU ACROSS INDIANA AND SEE HOW MUCH OF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. 

IN ANY EVENT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO SLIDE INTO THE SNOW BELT AREA. THIS WILL FALL APART
INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN STRONGER IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A MIX
OF RAIN OR SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WITH THE 
00Z NAEFS WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF A STORM THAT 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AN MOVE 
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST 
AREA WILL MOST LIKELY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR SO THE BULK OF THE 
PCPN WILL BE RAIN BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM 
WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF CLE 
IN THE SNOW BELT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL 
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A 
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LOW CLOUDS JUST BELOW 3000 FEET
MOVING SLOWLY EAST OUT OF INDIANA INTO OHIO. THE RUC APPEARS TO BE
THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS A HANDLE ON THIS MOISTURE. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MOISTURE WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AND
WEAKEN. SO...I WILL PUSH CLOUDS AT AROUND 3000 FEET INTO TOLEDO
AND FINDLAY FOR A FEW HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW. EXCEPTION IS
ERIE WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FEET SLIDE SOUTH OFF
THE LAKE IN LAKE EFFECT BANDS. 

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BY SHIFTING TO A
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT CONTINUING TOMORROW.
EXCEPTION IS THE FAR WEST WHERE LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM AVON POINT EASTWARD UNTIL 
10PM THIS EVENING TO ALLOW MORE TIME FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO SETTLE 
DOWN.  RECENT REPORT FROM WALNUT CREEK HARBOR STILL INDICATES 4 FOOT 
WAVES...WITH SCA LEVEL WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN UNTIL AROUND 
SUNSET. WAVES MAY STAY UP ABOVE 4 FEET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
ALONG THE PA LAKESHORE...BUT EXPECT THE LAKE TO CALM DOWN WELL 
BEFORE SUNRISE.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. A STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM MOVING 
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CAUSE WINDS OVER THE LAKE TO SWING NW 
TO N TOMORROW ...AND MAY EVEN BACK ALL THE WAY TO NE OVER THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.  WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY 
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.  EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE 
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA POSSIBLE MONDAY.

FLOW RELAXES AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WESTERLY GALES POSSIBLE 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP 
OVER THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ASTIFAN