FXUS61 KOKX 251615
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1115 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY...THEN IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN HEAD THO THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION THIS WEEKEND. RIDGING
WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA BY EARLY/MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING MAINLY TO EXPAND THE AREA OF CHC POPS
FURTHER EAST THIS AFTN OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
CURRENT HIGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY 12Z OKX SOUNDING...JUST TWEAKED
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWS WITH LATEST LAV DATA.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW AN H95 INVERSION.
A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY
ON THE INCREASE...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS NOT ADVERTISING ANY REAL
INSTABILITY...SO KEPT PRESENT WX AS -RA AT THIS TIME.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 50 INLAND WITH MID 50S
CLOSER TO THE WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A
COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RACE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
AT THIS TIME...BOTH SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED TO NONEXISTENT...SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE -RA. IN
ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WIND UP AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER..DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SET UP. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF
THE CLOUD COVER TO FINALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND LI. THIS IS CLOSER TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING INLAND...WITH LOWS NEAR THE MID 30S FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN CLOSER TO CLIMATE NORMS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY IFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY. NOT CONFIDENT ON WHETHER WE GET TO
LOW END MVFR ACROSS THE CITY TERMINALS WITH INCREASING LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT COULD
HAVE SOME MVFR HZ. BETTER CHANCE OF LOW-END MVFR CIGS DURING LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD MOVE IN FROM W TO E DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN TO IFR(LOCALLY
LIFR)CIGS. MVFR VSBY(LOCALLY IFR) IN -SHRA/DZ.
INDICATIONS THAT CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 04Z-06Z IN WAKE OF
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND -SHRADZ...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS.
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE IFR FOG FOR THE MORNING PUSH ON
THANKSGIVING DAY.
LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HRS.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...LOW PROB OF LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBY IN -SHRA/DZ THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
25/14Z 06005KT
25/15Z 07005KT
25/16Z 07005KT
25/17Z 08005KT
25/18Z 09005KT
25/19Z 09005KT
25/20Z 10004KT
25/21Z 11004KT
25/22Z VRB03KT
25/23Z 00000KT
26/00Z 00000KT
26/01Z 00000KT
KJFK...LOW PROB OF LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBY IN -SHRA/DZ THIS
AFTERNOON.
KLGA...LOW PROB OF LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBY IN -SHRA/DZ THIS
AFTERNOON.
KTEB...LOW PROB OF LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBY IN -SHRA/DZ THIS
AFTERNOON.
KHPN...LOW PROB OF LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBY IN -SHRA/DZ THIS
AFTERNOON.
KSWF...MED PROB OF LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBY IN -SHRA/DZ THIS
AFTERNOON.
KISP...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHETHER CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW END
MVFR BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z.
KBDR...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHETHER CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW END
MVFR BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z.
KGON...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHETHER CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW END
MVFR BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR BY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY... BECOMING VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRES SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PASS TO THE EAST THIS AFTN
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES OFF OF HATTERAS WILL
TRACK E OF LI AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME FRI. THE LOW
WILL SLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
IN MON AND TUE.
SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WAVES SUBSIDE TO 4-6FT...MAINLY IN
E SWELLS. MARGINAL 5FT SEAS ON THU...THEN MAIN FOCUS TURNS TO
INCREASING WINDS FRI. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO DEEPEN
QUICKLY AS IT REACHES A POINT SE OF CAPE COD THU NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUT THE COASTAL WATERS IN STRONG WNW FLOW FRI-SAT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS ON SUN. GALES CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE ERN WATERS. THIS HAZARD WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HWO FOR ALL
COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
