FXUS65 KPUB 111119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
419 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AS ANY REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE 
MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH KANSAS. THOUGH THIS SYSTEM DIDN'T BRING MUCH 
MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER 
VALLEY TO HAVE PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG SHOULD BE GONE 
BY 15Z. THE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE STRONGEST IN LOW LYING AREAS 
AND AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS
ONE-HALF MILE.

ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS  
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. 
THOUGH WITH SNOW OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO THERE IS A SHALLOW 
COLD POOL WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. 

ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME MORE SNOW TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE..THOUGH THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OR THE I 25 CORRIDOR. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. JMC

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

...MORE SNOW FOR THE DIVIDE THIS WEEKEND...

SHOULD FINALLY SEE THINGS WARM UP THIS WEEKEND...AS THE LEE TOUGH
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND ZONAL FLOW STARTS KICKING IN. MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE...HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW-
COVERED AREAS. SO...WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE ON SAT...THEN
AROUND MOS ON SUN WHEN THE LEE TROUGH IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW FRI NITE INTO SAT...AND
THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE WRN MTS...BUT NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SUN
MORN. LATEST GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC IN BRINGING A MORE
ROBUST DISTURBANCE THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH H7 WINDS IN THE
50 KT RANGE OVR THE 4 CORNERS REGION SUN MORN...THERE WILL BE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS AND SOME DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BOOT. NOWHERE
NEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE RECENT BLIZZARD...BUT WITH WSW FLOW
STRENGTHENING OVER THE SAN JUANS...CAN EASILY SEE A FOOT OR MORE
SNOWFALL FOR WOLF CREEK AND SW SLOPES BY MON WITH THIS STORM.
HIGHER ELEVS OF THE SAWATCH SHOULD DO PRETTY WELL ALSO.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS STORM...THE COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE PLAINS...AND WITH WRLY FLOW ALOFT ANY SNOWFALL
E OF THE DVD WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. MAIN STORY E OF THE MTS WILL
BE THE WIND...WITH H7 WINDS INCREASING TO 50+ KTS OVER THE CREST
OF THE SANGRES. SHOULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVR THE E
SLOPES AND AREAS ALONG AND W OF I-25.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND'S STORM PASSES TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THIS WILL DROP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON MON FOR THE ERN
ZONES...SINCE THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR S AND W THE COLD AIR
GETS. MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WELL TO THE
N...BUT SINCE THE MODELS GENERALLY UNDERESTIMATE THESE COLD AIR
INTRUSIONS...WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FOR MON-TUE. FOR WED-THU...LOOKS LIKE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVR THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY AND
ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN MTS AND
UPPER ARKANSAS...WHICH WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO THE STORM TRACK.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF GROUND FOG AND 
SHALLOW STRATUS ALONG AND NEAR THE RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING.  
HOWEVER...DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS AND A 
LITTLE MORE MIXING...DO NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD ALONG 
THE RIVERS AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  SO...WILL NOT PUT INTO ANY OF THE 
TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANY FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE GONE BY 15Z.  THE 
ONLY OTHER CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF 
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED. JMC

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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