FXUS62 KTAE 081841
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AS YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DEVELOPS WELL OFF TO OUR NW TODAY...A SFC REFLECTION OF THIS
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ITS RESPONSE. THE ONCE LARGE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC RAIN EARLIER IN THE MORNING...IS ALREADY BECOMING MORE
SCT IN NATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST OFF TO WEST
OF THE REGION AS OF 11 AM EST. IT APPEARS THE WARM FRONT IS TRYING
TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS IN THESE AREAS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE LA GULF COAST...TRYING TO SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE VERY GRADUALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE NOW LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS OUT OF THE SW OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...VERY COMPLEX FCST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS FIRST AND FOREMOST WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX FOR TONIGHT...AND FOR OUR AREA THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND
APALACHICOLA RIVER BASINS ANS GREATER INSTABILITY PROPAGATES INLAND
FROM THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS A
BIT FURTHER EASTWARD AS WELL...SO WILL BRING ISO T+ ABOUT AS FAR
EAST AS TALLAHASSEE BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC TONIGHT. SO ALL
INTERESTS ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. AFTER THIS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
MOVE RIGHT BACK NE ALONG IT FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT AS WITH
THIS PAST SCENARIO LAST WEEK...ONLY EXPECT A COLD RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM....WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE RATHER AMPLIFIED H5/H2
TROUGH FROM NRN CANADA SEEN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL MOVE
EWD AND TREND TOWARDS A BROADER/FLATTER PATTERN BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SRN HALF OF CONUS. AT
SAME TIME WE SEE EVIDENCE OF UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER WRN CONUS.
STILL...EL NINO PATTERN PERSISTS AND SRN STREAM REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY ACTIVE THRU EXTENDED TO CONTINUE SENDING A SERIES OF
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES DOWNSTREAM TO STIMULATE SURFACE WAVES/FRONTS
AND GENERATE PERIODS OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN. NEXT MAJOR IMPULSE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SERN U.S. LATE INTO SAT.
AT LOWER LEVELS...PERIOD BEGINS WITH STALLED FRONT ACROSS S/CNTRL
GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SE CONUS WITH A RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL E FLOW YIELDING A MODESTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. BUT...AS
HIGH MOVES E OF CWA OVERNIGHT THURS...AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM LOW...
FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ONSHORE BY EARLY FRI. THIS LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
LWR MS VALLEY TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
REACHING THE SRN MID-ATLC COAST LATER ON SAT. ANOTHER MESO LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG STALLED GULF FRONT AND RIDES NEWD HELPING LIFT FRONT
BACK NWD BY FRI FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
BEGINNING LATE THURS NIGHT (ESPECIALLY SRN THIRD OF CWA). LOW
REACHES GA COAST SAT MORN B4 LIFTING OFF TO CAROLINAS BY LATE SAT.
THIS MOVEMENT AIDED BY PASSING SHORTWAVE...DRAGS PARENT COLD FRONT
SEWD ACROSS REGION ON SAT WITH BY GOOD CHANCE OF SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS
OVERSPREADING CWA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD TO N/CNTRL FL
BY SAT EVE AND SRN FL ON SUNDAY. IN WAKE OF EXITING IMPULSE/FRONT
...EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING SEWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. MODELS HINT AT YET ANOTHER GULF LOW
MOVING NEWD IMPACTING MAINLY MARINE AREA ON MONDAY.
IN WAKE OF INITIAL FRONT....NIL POPS INTO EARLY FRI MORN...THEN
AHEAD AND ALONG NEXT COLD FRONT...LO-MID SCT POPS FRI AFTN THEN A
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT LATE EVE DECREASING TO
AOB WDLY SCT THRU SUN. THEN...LO SCT POPS MAINLY ON MONDAY. AS FAR
AS TEMPS...IN WAKE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT...THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SHOW
MINS/MAX WELL BELOW CLIMO (CLIMO IS LOW 40S MIN AND MID 60S MAX
TEMPS). THEN AS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACH LOCAL REGION...MINS
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FRI NIGHT AND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
ON SAT NIGHT B4 DROPPING TO 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SUN NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS SAT-MON HOVER AROUND CLIMO.
&&
.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND WILL NOW BE CONFIRMED BY THE
INCOMING WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS...WILL BEGIN THE THE FIRST IN
WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF SCA'S AT 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING
IT AT 4 PM WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...DIFFICULT TAF PACKAGE THIS CYCLE AS THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM IS BRINGING A MYRIAD OF RESTRICTIONS TO THE TERMINALS.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF
COAST. AS THIS WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
BACK INTO THE IFR (NORTH) AND MVFR (SOUTH) RANGE. AS A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WILL INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS IN THESE STORMS FROM WEST
(06Z) TO EAST (12-15Z). RESTRICTIONS AT DHN AND PFN SHOULD END JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS SEVERAL SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL HEAD
OUR WAY AND KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TO A MINIMUM...AND IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE FIRST CHANCE OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 68 61 79 45 54 / 50 60 40 30 50
PANAMA CITY 68 65 76 48 56 / 60 60 30 30 40
DOTHAN 63 60 73 41 55 / 80 70 30 20 20
ALBANY 62 60 76 43 54 / 70 60 30 10 30
VALDOSTA 68 62 78 44 53 / 60 50 40 20 40
CROSS CITY 72 63 79 48 54 / 30 30 50 30 50
APALACHICOLA 68 66 77 49 56 / 40 60 40 30 50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
.AVIATION FIRE WX/GODSEY/MOORE
.PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
.LONG TERM...BLOCK
