FXUS65 KABQ 051026
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 AM MST SAT DEC 5 2009
...POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS PRIMARILY FOCUS ON THE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY TIME
FRAME AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM FOR NM. LATEST RUC80
ANALYSIS INDICATES A BACKING FLOW ALOFT...SHIFTING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES
AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY TROUBLEMAKER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CA...
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SAT NIGHT...OFFERING
NOTHING MORE THAN LOWERING CLOUD DECKS. A MORE INTENSE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH OREGON IS CHASING THE HEELS OF THE INITIAL WEAK DISTURBANCE.
THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PLAYER IN CENTRAL CO...
HOWEVER SOME DYNAMICS WILL IMPACT THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF NM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. OF MORE IMPORTANCE...WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE...LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DRIVE THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
BUT WILL BE CHALLENGING IN THE ERN PLAINS DUE TO RECENT SNOW COVER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BUT A KIBOSH ON ANY TEMPERATURE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE NE AND POSSIBLY EC PLAINS FOR SUN...AND FURTHER
SOUTH ON MON.
THE THIRD AND MOST IMPRESSIVE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...STILL LOCATED IN WRN CANADA...WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY...BEFORE THE COLD CORE
ALOFT INVADES THE STATE...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE PROJECTED PATTERN IS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
FOR A MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS. INCREASED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER WILL
STILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING PROGRESS. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT...
THEREFORE WILL MENTION CONCERN IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE GRAPHICAST. STILL TOO EARLY TO
MAKE TOTAL SNOW PREDICTIONS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF 1 OR 2 FT
OF SNOW POUND THE SRN SAN JUANS. SNOWS WILL SHIFT TO THE ERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT MOTHER NATURE WILL NOT BE FINISHED
WITH THE ENTOURAGE OF STORM SYSTEMS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS LATE WEEK
STORM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS40 HAS
THE SYSTEM COMING FROM THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT A FEW OTHER LOCALES
ADJACENT TO CHAVES COUNTY BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS
TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER...POOR TO LOCALLY FAIR VENTILATION
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO VERY LITTLE MIXING. TEMPERATURES
TO ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EAST AND MOST OF CENTRAL NM...WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OR SO OF NORMAL VALUES IN THE WEST. GENERALLY EXPECT
THE COOLEST READINGS AROUND SNOW COVER. HOWEVER...SOME MELTING
SHOULD OCCUR WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO DAYTIME
DEWPOINTS MAY LOCALLY RISE IN AND NEAR SNOW COVERED AREAS THAT SEE
TEMPS APPROACH OR EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK.
A WEAK FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...COOLING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY THE FAR NE PLAINS. VENTILATION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE POOR...HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION IS
EXPECTED AS WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SOME BUT NOT
COMPLETE MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE EXPECTED.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE...THOUGH MOST
NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE W AND N CENTRAL. ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEMS
FAIRLY LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. A VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP OVER SE
COLORADO COMBINED WITH A 700MB JET UP TO 70-80KT WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SFC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. WINDS SHOULD
TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT MIDWEEK...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SOME
SPOTS AND LOCALLY WINDY IN A FEW. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 42 19 41 24 / 0 5 5 10
DULCE........................... 38 13 35 13 / 0 10 10 20
CUBA............................ 43 14 40 17 / 0 0 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 46 13 42 25 / 0 0 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 44 12 41 16 / 0 0 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 49 11 46 20 / 0 0 5 10
QUEMADO......................... 50 13 48 20 / 0 0 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 51 19 53 27 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 33 4 29 4 / 0 10 20 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 12 40 14 / 0 0 5 10
PECOS........................... 37 11 35 8 / 0 0 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 -3 31 2 / 0 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 29 4 24 5 / 0 5 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 5 27 6 / 0 5 10 10
TAOS............................ 37 6 36 9 / 0 0 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 46 13 44 17 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 38 11 37 12 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 16 38 19 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 41 21 44 25 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 22 45 26 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 43 19 47 22 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 21 46 24 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 18 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 21 47 24 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 48 21 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 17 40 17 / 0 0 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 16 40 21 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 17 38 19 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 22 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 46 24 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 40 22 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 45 14 33 11 / 0 5 5 10
RATON........................... 43 11 34 10 / 0 0 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 17 37 15 / 0 0 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 47 17 31 12 / 0 0 5 5
ROY............................. 47 20 37 17 / 0 0 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 47 17 43 17 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 20 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 47 19 42 16 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 47 23 47 18 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 48 20 48 19 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 21 49 19 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 23 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 46 25 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 46 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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