FXUS61 KAKQ 040300
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EST THU DEC 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. 
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW LVL NW FLOW MOVING OVER THE RGN AND LEADING TO A INCREASE IN
WINDS AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE BAY AND IMMEDIATE SHORELINES
(MAINLY ERN SHORE). WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL THIRD. LOOK FOR
MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER INLAND AREAS. LOWS IN THE
M30S W TO L40S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRI WL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...AND END UP MCLDY AS HI PRES GRDLY
DSPTS. NEXT STM ALREADY WL BE TAKING SHAPE INVOF NCNTRL
GOM...PTNTLLY BRINING WINTRY MIX OF PCPN TO PORTIONS OF THE WRN
GULF STATES. FOR US...XPCTG M/H CLDS TO SPRD INTO THE RGN...ESP LT
MRNG THROUGH THE AFTN HRS. PCPN RMN CONCENTRATED NR/JUST OFF
SE CONUS CST (AWAITING ARRIVAL OF STM SYS FM THE W). HV BLENDED
MDL TEMP GUID FOR HI TEMPS...LEADING TO HI TEMPS IN THE L/M50S
N...M/U50S S.

STM SYS WL JUMP TO THE SE CST AFT MDNGT FRI NGT...AND MSTR WL CONT
SPRDG NE INTO THE MDATLC STATES (THROUGH ERY SAT MRNG). INITIALLY
WL BE TOO WRM FOR PTYPE CONCERNS AS PCPN ARRIVES LT FRI NGT/SAT
MRNG. INCRSD CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER SGFNT/WDSPRD PCPN EVENT AND HV
RAISED POPS FOR PD FM LT FRI NGT THROUGH SAT ACRS ALL OF THE FA.

XPCTG A COLD RAIN ON SAT W/ TEMPS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE U30S TO 
L40S. AT THIS POINT...BASING PTYPE CONCERNS/MIXED PCPN CHCS ON
CLIMO AND TRACK OF COMBO SFC LO NE AND RMNG OFFSHR/UPR LVL SYS
THROUGH THE AREA (SAT AFTN/EVE). W/ THAT SAID...NOT SURPRISING TO
HV A THREAT FOR WINTRY PCPN ON NW PORTION OF CSTL STM THIS TIME OF
YR...AND XPCTG THAT TO BE THE CASE THIS TIME ARND. MDLS WL LIKELY 
CONT TO SWAY WRM/COLD (I.E., WHETHER THERE CAN BE SN OR NOT...ESP
FM I95 ON E IN LTR PORTION OF STM) FOR NEXT CPL OF RUNS B4
ARRIVING AT EVENTUAL OUTCOME. SO...NOT QUITE TM TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC. QUESTIONS RMN ABT THE TMG OF TRANSITION FM RA TO MIX
AND/OR ALL WET SN. WL TAKE TM ON SAT FOR SUFFICIENT COLUMN COOLING
OVR MUCH OF FA. HV CHOSEN TO CONFINE SN MENTION TO AREAS MSTLY W
OF RIC FM SAT MRNG INTO ERY SAT AFTN...B4 ANY TRANSITION TO THE E
LTR SAT INTO 1ST HALF OF SAT NGT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
MINOR...SLUSHY ACCUM (FOR SOME AREAS IN WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF
FA) WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE (SAT NGT). W/ ROAD TEMPS ABV 
FRZG...ROADS RMN WET.

STM MVS QUIKLY NE AND OUT TO SEA AFT MDNGT SAT NGT...RESULTING
IN RAPID CLRG AND AN END TO PCPN. WL HANG ONTO SLGT CHC (MIXED?)
POPS NR THE CST. SFC HI PRES BUILDS OVR THE FA ON SUN...BRINGING
DRY/SEASONABLY COOL WX. LO TEMPS SAT NGT IN THE 20S TO M30S. HI
TEMPS SUN FM THE M40S TO NR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE CONTINUES AS THE MODELS
SHOW A FAST FLOW ACROSS THE US WITH MUCH MORE PACIFIC FLOW VERSUS
A MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL SEE SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
US WITH GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BE
BUILDING NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...ALLOW FOR SW FLOW
ALOFT. INTIALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. SO FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT THE REGION DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT HAVE ALLOWED
FOR MORE SKY COVER. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE DAY TIME
HEATING SOME ...BUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IS STILL
REASONABLE. A WEAK FRONT DOES TRY AND CROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS LIKE TI WILL WEAKEN AND NOT REACH THE AREA
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDING POPS WITH IT.

THE SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE
MOISTURE TO BUILD AND FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A STRONG TROUGH SWEEPING
EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
AS A RESULT PUSHES MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF DOES NOT AMPLIFY THE WAVE UNTIL AFTER IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND
SO THE WARMING IS NOT A GREAT. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCREASED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE AND HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/HPC
NUMBERS...BUT IF THE PATTERN DOES AMPLIFY...IT COULD EASILY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY THURSDAY...THE LOW IS DEEPENING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH
A COLD NW FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS WITH COOL...BUT NOT COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS COVER THE TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A NORTHERLY SURGE WAS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AT 23Z PRODUCING A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25
KTS. THIS SURGE WILL SPREAD S AND SE TOWARD THE ECG AREA DURING
THE EVENING.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS THE NEXT WX SYSTEM 
APPROACHES. PCPN WILL SPREAD FROM S TO N EARLY SAT. WIDESPREAD 
PCPN AND IFR WILL BE PRESENT DURG THE DAY SAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 
A MIX TO SNOW AT RIC/SBY BY LATE SAT/SAT EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL 
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SUN MRNG WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA SUN 
AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH 
NEXT CHC OF PCPN/LWR CEILINGS BY LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR MARINE ZONES THROUGH 09Z. THE NEW RUC
     WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING THE NORTHERLY SURGE BEST...FORECASTS IT TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO KEPT SCA GOING IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES TIL 11Z WHERE SEAS SHOULD STAY AOA 5 FT.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW IS NOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND 
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE
LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THINGS TO RELAX A BIT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. BUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDE NEWD ALONG
THE SE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A GOOD NE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND BUILD
TO SCA OR EVEN LOW END GALE CONDITIONS ON SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL FRONT PULLS TOWARD THE COAST AND THE SURFACE LOW 
APPROACHES.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. THE HIGHER SEAS WILL
LINGER HOWEVER INTO SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO THE ABOUT 36 HR DURATION
OF THE STRONG NE FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUES BEFORE SE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE REGION...FLOOD WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER AT LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE NOTTOWAY
RIVER NEAR STONY CREEK. SEE LATEST WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE INFO.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DATA FEED FOR STONY CREEK RIVER STAGE ON THE WBCRR2AKQ
PRODUCT IS INACCURATE AND WILL BE CORRECTED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
(BUT MAY TAKE TILL SOMETIME ON FRIDAY TO BE CORRECTED). PLEASE
REFER TO HTTP://NEWWEB.ERH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WF0=AKQ 
AND CLICK ON STONY CREEK ICON ON THE MAP FOR THE LATEST RIVER
STAGE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>633-654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SMF
NEAR TERM...ALB/CCW
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ESS/LSA
HYDROLOGY...CCW
EQUIPMENT...CCW