FXUS65 KABQ 061025
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 AM MST SUN DEC 6 2009
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL NM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE INVOLVING
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC80 ANALYSIS BOTH
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL NM.
THIS IS EVIDENT BY THE CLEAR SLOT WHICH IS TRAVERSING FROM WEST-EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
WILL SHOVE EAST OF THE STATE AROUND DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WRN UNITED STATES. DYNAMICS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING WRN/
CENTRAL COLORADO WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS
CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY AFTERNOON
WITH A NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMUM RIPPING ALONG THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS VORT MAX...MAINLY WITHIN THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE CO BORDER...
WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NE/EC PLAINS...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL ON MAX TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE AN 85KT 500MB JET CORE
WILL BISECT THE STATE...LEADING TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITHIN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT IMPRESSIVE WEATHER MAKER FOR NEW MEXICO IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WRN OREGON. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT MIGRATES INTO CENTRAL CA...BUT ITS TRAJECTORY SHOULD
ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE SWRN US. HIGH CONSISTENCY
REMAIN IN THE MODEL PACKAGES WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH/TIMING...WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY STARTING MON MORNING OVER NORTHWEST NM...
THEN EXPANDING INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL ZONES MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER
FOR THE WEST FACING SLOPES...WHERE THE SRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS COULD
BE MEASURING IN FEET INSTEAD OF INCHES. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS LIKELY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH MAY PLAY A FACTOR IN TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND COLD CORE ALOFT INVADE THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY. INHERITED WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE...ALTHOUGH WILL MAKE TWO MINOR TWEAKS.
WILL ADD NMZ501 TO THE WSW. SECOND WILL BE A SYSTEMATIC ADJUSTMENT
TO CHANGE THE VTEC START TIME FROM 12Z TO 13Z...FORCING THE HEADLINE
TO SAY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOTHER NATURE WILL
COMPLICATE THE SITUATION BY PUSHING A 100KT 500MB JET ACROSS SRN NM
ON TUESDAY. IT APPEARS HIGH WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR...PARTICULARLY IN
THE SACRAMENTO MTS AND POSSIBLY THE SE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS REGION FOR A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WATCH IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT NRN NM TO A LESSER EXTENT...LEADING TO
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...
READINGS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM. OPTED TO
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TUE IN CENTRAL/WRN NM DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS MUDDLED AS ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS PERTURBATIONS TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION...KICKING OFF ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. TIMING
THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND OPTED TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF THE
MEXMOS AND ECMWF ATTM. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND N CENTRAL NM
AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z...
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDINESS
AND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF PECOS VALLEY AND
ADJACENT AREAS FROM BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 15Z. ALSO A RELATIVELY
WEAK COLD FRONT IN NE NM AS OF THIS WRITING WILL ADVANCE TO A LINE
FROM W OF KRTN TO NEAR OR JUST N OF KCVS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
MAKING ONLY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THEREAFTER AND
LITTLE TO NO FURTHER WESTWARD PROGRESS. WHILE NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH
OR BEHIND FRONT...SOME LOW CLOUDINESS IN MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CATEGORY LIKELY BETWEEN MAINLY 13Z AND 19Z ACROSS AREAS FROM KRTN TO
KCAO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS KTCC OR ROY. BASES SHOULD RISE A
LITTLE THIS AFTN. MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL EXPAND FARTHER S ACROSS
MUCH OF N QUARTER TO THIRD OF STATE LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY
FARTHER S ACROSS THE E PLAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE E PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER CLOUDS. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AS MIXING AND TRANSPORT
WINDS INCREASE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT IN NE
QUARTER TO THIRD OF NM. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY
AS THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL NM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
BUT REALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR N CENTRAL SECTIONS MONDAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FAIRLY LIKELY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH AND WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN RIO ARRIBA COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA THAT
SHOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST BY SNOW...WHERE UP TO A FOOT AND A HALF
TO PERHAPS AROUND 2 FEET MAY ACCUMULATE. ALSO A 65 TO POSSIBLY 80
KNOT WIND SPEED MAXIMUM AT 700MB WILL CROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AS
A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. EXPECT THIS
COMBINATION TO GENERATE VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 55 MPH NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40. THUS
VENTILATION WILL BE EXCELLENT ACROSS THE STATE.
AFTER THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS LATER TUESDAY...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 42 23 41 28 / 5 10 40 70
DULCE........................... 35 14 34 22 / 20 20 60 80
CUBA............................ 39 13 36 21 / 0 10 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 43 23 40 29 / 10 5 50 70
EL MORRO........................ 41 17 40 21 / 10 5 30 70
GRANTS.......................... 45 20 43 30 / 5 5 20 60
QUEMADO......................... 48 20 45 24 / 5 5 20 60
GLENWOOD........................ 52 25 52 31 / 5 5 10 60
CHAMA........................... 29 8 29 15 / 30 30 70 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 16 37 22 / 0 5 40 50
PECOS........................... 35 12 36 22 / 5 5 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 6 31 18 / 10 10 50 50
RED RIVER....................... 23 6 27 16 / 10 10 40 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 5 30 16 / 10 10 30 50
TAOS............................ 34 10 34 22 / 5 10 40 50
ESPANOLA........................ 45 16 43 22 / 0 0 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 38 19 37 25 / 5 5 40 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 19 37 27 / 0 5 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 25 44 29 / 0 0 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 45 27 45 31 / 0 0 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 47 22 46 27 / 0 0 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 46 24 45 28 / 0 0 10 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 20 49 26 / 0 0 10 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 46 24 44 29 / 0 0 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 53 23 49 28 / 0 0 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 18 41 26 / 0 0 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 40 17 41 23 / 0 0 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 19 35 27 / 0 0 10 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 24 44 29 / 0 5 10 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 46 24 45 30 / 0 0 5 20
RUIDOSO......................... 44 24 43 28 / 0 0 5 20
CAPULIN......................... 30 10 31 18 / 10 10 10 20
RATON........................... 30 12 33 21 / 10 10 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 36 18 35 26 / 5 5 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 31 13 30 23 / 10 5 10 10
ROY............................. 36 14 30 23 / 5 5 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 42 17 38 29 / 0 5 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 18 41 28 / 0 0 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 41 16 36 30 / 0 5 5 10
CLOVIS.......................... 45 21 40 30 / 0 0 5 5
PORTALES........................ 47 21 43 31 / 0 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 20 43 29 / 0 0 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 49 28 50 35 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 51 27 54 31 / 0 0 0 10
ELK............................. 48 28 51 29 / 0 0 5 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>506-508-510>517.
&&
$$
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