FXUS63 KMKX 072204
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
404 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE: HIGH

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
WIND DOWN BY EVENING...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE
BREAK IN SNOW WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE BIG WINTER STORM HEADS FOR
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH THIS
STORM...AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...SO WENT
AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO WARNING. ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE EARLIER START TIME...NOW NOON INSTEAD OF 6 PM
CST. MAIN REASON FOR THIS WAS THAT MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING AN
EARLIER START TO ACCUMULATING SNOWS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLIER...WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED COLUMN ALLOWING SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE EAST...SO THINK MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THINGS REALLY CRANK UP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH

TUESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN MISSOURI AROUND
MIDNIGHT...TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD DAY BREAK.
THIS PATH SUGGESTS ALL SNOW FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THOUGH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL CUT ACCUMULATIONS DOWN A TOUCH.
ONCE REMAINING CONCERN IS THE NAM...WHICH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK...SHIFTING THE BAND OF HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
NORTHWEST SOME...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED...THOUGH WINTER STORM
WARNING CONDITIONS STILL WOULD OCCUR ACROSS MOST PLACES WITH THIS
SOLUTION.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME AFTER THE HEAVIEST SNOWS...SO HELD
OFF ON ANY BLIZZARD HEADLINE. EITHER WAY...EXPECTING VERY POOR
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH BLOWING SNOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. THINK THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE A BIG ENOUGH
IMPACT...SO HAVE THE WARNING GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL HAVE ENDED
A BIT EARLIER. TEMPS BEGIN TO CRASH ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON POURS INTO THE REGION. WITH 925 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -20C BY THURSDAY MORNING...HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TEENS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WIND
PRODUCING SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS.

.LONG TERM...

.FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE: HIGH

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS HINTING AT A POSSIBLE WAVE OR TWO BRINGING
PRECIP AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING
STRONG ENOUGH OR CONSISTENT ENOUGH BETWEEN MODELS TO PUT PRECIP IN
THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCD WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST 
SHOULD GO VFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS SNOW TAPERS OFF. THE NEXT SYSTEM 
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. SNOW COULD 
START AS EARLY AS 12Z AT MSN. EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD 
ALSO HELP SNOW START AROUND 12Z AT MKE AND ENW. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL 
FALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 
WED AFTERNOON AFTER THE SFC LOW PASSES TO THE EAST. 

&&

.MARINE...FOCUS ON INTENSE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 
PLAINS ON TUE AND MOVE ACROSS LOWER LK MI EARLY WED MRNG.  STEEP LOW 
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH 35KTS WITH STRONG 
EAST WINDS AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH.  WINDS DIMINISH BRIEFLY BTWN 
10Z AND 14Z WED AS LOW MOVES NEAR REGION...THEN STRONG W TO NW WNDS 
RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS LOW MOVES FARTHER NE.  BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GALE 
WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET WED INTO WED NGT.  GALE WATCH CONTINUES 
FROM TUE NGT THRU WED NGT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY 
     NIGHT FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...07/DDV
AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC