FXUS65 KCYS 281152
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
452 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CURRENT IR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE ROCKIES. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT STARTING TO
PUSH INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING THE 
TROUGH SPLITTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
FORMING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CALIF AND ARIZONA. WITH
THE MAIN JET ENERGY SPLITTING TO THE SOUTH AND THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE SYSTEM ONLY BRUSHING ERN WYOMING AND NRN NEBRASKA...EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
FIRST COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXPECT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MAINLY
EXPECT FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SE WYOMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE. A PERIOD 
OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ALBANY AND CARBON
COUNTIES WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
LOWERED POP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT INCREASED POP ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO 60 PCT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGS COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG I80 ACROSS
THE SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
PUSHING WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN ARIZONA. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGS COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. LOW TEMPS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
HIGHER VALLEYS OF CNTRL WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE BOOSTED MAX TEMPS 
SOME GIVEN DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES.
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT THE CWA
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE
OF A GLANCING BLOW AS TO THE AMOUNT OF WX ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPS WILL BE TURNING
COOLER AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY...AND THEY WILL STAY
THAT WAY INTO THU UNDER NNW FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODERATION LOOKS TO
BE IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY FRI AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS OVER WY
AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH. CANADIAN LOOKS TOO FAST ON THIS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 4000-6000 
FEET AGL LATER THIS MORNING...THEN LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS 
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN AND CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED
VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PCT WEST OF I25 WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY...AND THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
HUMIDITIES TRENDING HIGHER TODAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY THIS
EVENING...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TJT 
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JLH