FXUS64 KMEG 271556 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
956 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES ARE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
ARS
&&
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WERE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WERE NEAR
OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING MAKING THIS THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON AT MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN THE MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...THE NORMALLY WARM SPOT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WAS
APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS REMAINS
OVERS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTER A COLD START...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
A VERY NICE LATE NOVEMBER DAY WEATHERWISE IS FORECAST FOR THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WITH WARMING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND ONLY SOME HIGH
LEVELS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH MS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE WEST OF THE MS RIVER ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND EAST OK BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
THINK IT WILL REMAIN RAINFREE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS JUST A SPRINKLE LATE IN THE NIGHT WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL TO SOUTHWEST AR BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TIERED POPS FROM 60 PERCENT AT JONESBORO TO 30
PERCENT AT TUPELO. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
SATURATED AS A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAND OF RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY LATE IN THE DAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATTEMPT TO BREAK THE DRIEST NOVEMBER
ON RECORD FOR MEMPHIS WILL NOT HAPPEN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT. BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT
IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST ATTM.
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MS
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD WEATHER WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE FOG THAT
NIGHT...BUT THAT IS TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. MOSTLY SUNNY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ABOUT WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
FORECAST MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY IN
PREFERENCE TO OUR CURRENT FORECAST AND THE SLOWER ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS INDICATES RAIN MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF INTERSTATE 40. PREFER TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND
NOT HIGHER UNTIL MODELS BECOME IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS
OF THIS SYSTEM.
DRIER AIR AND COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
MIDSOUTH ABOUT THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.
JCL
AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 7 KNOTS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 3 KNOTS TONIGHT.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 58 43 67 50 / 0 0 0 10
MKL 54 36 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 55 39 63 47 / 0 0 0 10
TUP 56 35 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
