FXAK67 PAJK 222254
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
154 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF EARLY TONIGHT...THEN STALL AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRES
AREA MOVES N ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT THEN CURVES NW TO NEAR
ENTRANCE TO COOK INLET WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE NE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WED. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER CENTRAL BC THRU WED. 

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE
AREA BEFORE ANY CHANGE TO RAIN AND HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. AS FOR THE SNOW...THE HIGH HANGING TOUGH OVER
CENTRAL BC WILL CONTINUE TO FEED IN COLD AIR THRU THE PASSES INTO
THE ERN CHANNELS THRU MOST OF WED...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP AREAS
ALONG THE COAST MTNS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THRU MUCH OF THE DAY
WED. FURTHER W...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER FURTHER W SO MORE SNOW WILL
FALL IN A SHORTER PERIOD BEFORE IT MIXES THEN CHANGES TO RAIN.
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND PAYA WHERE OVER 1 INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL OCCUR. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
PAYA AREA TONIGHT WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED...AND PAHN
AREA WED WITH 4-8 INCHES EXPECTED...AND WINTER WX ADVYS LATE
TONIGHT AND WED FOR PAGS...PAOH...PAJN...AND PAPG ZONES FOR
GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES.

AS FOR WINDS...LOOKS LIKE ADVY LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
AND SRN COAST AROUND 15Z WED...AND FAR SRN INNER CHANNELS AROUND
18Z. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVYS FOR PASI...PAKW...AND PAKT ZONES FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WED. THERE MAY ALSO BE DECENT OUTFLOW WINDS THRU
THE PASSES BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVY LEVELS. PRES GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS FOR AREAS FURTHER N SO
WILL NOT GO MORE THAN BREEZY FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVY FOR PAGY SHOULD BE ENDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE OFFSHORE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WILL HAVE STORM FORCE E WINDS OVER
THE N GULF LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING JUST NE OF THE LOW
TRACK...WITH GALES EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WILL
SEE SOME GALES FOR THE SRN AND WRN CHANNELS...AND SCA FOR THE
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU
TONIGHT AND INTO WED. WILL SHOW THAT TREND IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD
WITH AFTERNOON FCST PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MAIN WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
THE LARGE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
A STUBBORN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL RANGE OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIR PORTION
OF THE ACTION OUT OVER THE GULF AND SKIMMING BY SOUTHEAST ALASKA. 

EXPECT TO SEE A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS TRY TO MOVE ONSHORE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...BUT IT LOOKS AS FRIDAY
TO FRIDAY NIGHT ONE MAY FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES EAST TO ALBERTA. ALLOWING A TROUGH/LOW TO
FINALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN GULF ALOFT. 

WILL LIKELY SEE GALE FORCE WINDS SPREAD BACK INTO THE COASTAL
WATER AREAS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND.
THE OUTER MARINE ZONES INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE WATERS I BROUGHT
BACK UP TO GALE FORCE. 

UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FORECASTS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND
OF THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION...FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A BLEND OF THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME 22/00Z ECWMF
SOLUTION WAS USED.

HOLIDAY OUTLOOK IS FOR RAIN LIKELY MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. 

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     AKZ026.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ023-027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     AKZ020-021.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM AKST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052. 
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-041. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032. 

&&

$$

RWT/BEZENEK