FXUS63 KABR 020018 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
618 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY. NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES EACH OF THE NEXT
FOUR PERIODS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/. THE FORECAST AREA IS SITTING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BLASTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND IS UNDERGOING
SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CAA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF THAT IS BEING CARVED OUT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND DIG
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THAT DEVELOPMENT ALOFT WILL KEEP THIS CWA SITTING IN A LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SO...LOOK FOR NIGHT-TIME SURFACE WINDS TO DROP OFF TO GENERALLY 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT...BUT THEN RAMP BACK UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS DURING EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO CLOUD UP AND STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME RATHER LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...FROM
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TO FLURRIES.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH OF A REBOUND FROM THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S THAT ARE FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT. FOR
NOW...ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A MODEST 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR PROBLEM ENSUING ON
THURSDAY...BASED OFF OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THOUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
DECIDED TO KEEP GRIDS DRY. THOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CAA LIFT IS
MINIMAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND SFC COLD FRONT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LAKE OAHE INDUCED SHOWERS OUT WEST BUT
THIS CAN BE FINE TUNED CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ONE
UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER IN FAR
NORTHERN CANADA. THE SPLIT FLOW OF AN EL NINO YEAR PERSISTS.
MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE FIGURING OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE PRECIP
WILL FALL BECAUSE OF THIS. MOST OF THE TIME THERE IS JUST NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE THIS FAR NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A DRY FROPA.
ELECTED TO KEEP ALL POPS BELOW 20 AND ONLY BLENDED TO 20 ON TUE TO
MATCH THE NEIGHBORS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVES IN. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S EACH
DAY...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ABATE OVERNIGHT...AND CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE AOA 3K FEET. VSBYS SHOULD BE UNRESTRICTED.  

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN