FXUS64 KBMX 252051
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS FOLLOWING NOT
TOO FAR BEHIND...THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SKIES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO CONTINUES TO
RELAX AS YESTERDAYS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTH...SO OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF GUSTS TO 15 OR 17 MPH FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WE SHOULD GET LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRICKLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR TOMORROW...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE NORTHERN GULF STATES WILL
SEE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AOB 30 DEGREES AREA WIDE
TONIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO BE DOMINATED
BY THIS VERY ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. MODELS HAVE WAVERED BACK
AND FORTH WITH SOME POSSIBLE MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
BUT THE NAM/GFS/SREF HAVE REALLY COME IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER IN
REGARDS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US...LIKELY KEEPING
THINGS DRY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 ON SUNDAY OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A DRY
WEEKEND.
THE ACTION PICKS BACK LATE TUESDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
ACROSS MEXICO. THE INTERESTING THING WITH THIS...GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS AMPLIFICATION SHOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TWO SURFACE LOWS
THAT WILL MOVE INTO OR CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. THE FIRST
IS A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL KICK UP THE
FIRST GULF LOW. THIS ONE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA LIKE
SUNDAY'S...BUT THIS WILL BEGIN THE FIRST OF TWO MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES THIS WEEK. COLD AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW... WITH
LOW-TO-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE...HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THAT ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...AND THIS TIME...WITH
SOME FAIRLY STRONG CAA ADVECTION BEHIND IT...WE SEE ANOTHER SHOT
AT SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
NORMALLY...I DO NOT LIKE TO INTRODUCE WINTER PRECIPITATION THIS
FAR INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALABAMA...BUT IF THERES GOING TO BE
MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND COLD TEMPERATURES TO BOOT...
AFTER ALL...IT IS AN EL NINO WINTER.
27
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
JUST A FEW MORE HOURS OF MVFR...AS THE CLEARING LINE IS APPROACHING
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MVFR CEILINGS IN WAKE OF LIFTING UPPER LOW OVER
OVER MIDWEST WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 22 TO 23Z. VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WESTERN WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE OF NORTHERLY FLOW
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TCL, BHM, EET AND ANB THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
THURSDAY. WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM BY 00Z.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 28 48 25 49 25 / 0 0 10 10 10
ANNISTON 27 51 28 49 27 / 0 0 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 29 50 33 50 27 / 0 0 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 29 52 31 51 27 / 0 0 10 10 10
CALERA 29 52 33 50 28 / 0 0 10 10 10
AUBURN 27 51 33 51 29 / 0 0 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 30 55 31 52 29 / 0 0 10 10 10
TROY 30 56 30 52 29 / 0 0 10 20 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/16
