FXUS64 KLCH 291556
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
956 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS
POSITIONED NW OF THE AREA...STRETCHING ACRS ERN OK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL TX. KLCH 88D THIS MORNING INDICATING A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT A MILD AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACRS SE TX AND WRN AND CNTRL LA AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTN. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO POPS/WX GRIDS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FCST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AM WITH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. RAINS EXPECTED AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES DOWN INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. SOME BR IS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND LCH
BUT DOES NOT POSE A PROBLEM TO AVN TRAFFIC AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
DISCUSSION...AREA ENTERING INTO A WARMING AND MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS.
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHAPING US NICELY. WARMING SOUTHERLIES
TO USHER IN SOME VERY MILD LATE NOVEMBER AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE. UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK.
MODELS IN THE SHORT-TERM SHOWING EXCELLENT CONTINUITY IN ADVANCING
AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS FRONT INTO THE LAKES AREA LATER
TONIGHT...AND PUNCHING FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
MOISTURE AND RAINS SHOWING UP AS PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL SO HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAINS CHANCES THEN
DIMINISH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY SETTLES WELL INTO THE GULF
WATERS.
RAINS RETURN AGAIN TUESDAY AS WEST GULF LOW DEVELOPS ALONG TAIL
END OF FRONT ADVANCING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOWING SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT
FASTER AND WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND TRENDED MORE TOWARD A GFS SOLUTION. SHOULD THE EC MODEL
PROVE CORRECT...HEAVIER RAINS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.
RAINS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY...ENDING BY THURSDAY AS SYSTEM
EXITS NORTHEAST. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKING DRY AND COOL AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED. GFS SUGGESTING ANOTHER FROPA
WITH RAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST MAINTAIN LOW END
POPS DUE TO EXTENT OF UNCERTAINTY.
MARINE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE THROUGH
THE PLAINS...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ADVANCE DEEP INTO THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY...WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
WINDS...ROUGH SEAS AND RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND ADVANCES NORTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 61 65 48 / 10 50 80 50
KBPT 78 61 67 49 / 20 70 80 50
KAEX 74 57 60 44 / 20 70 80 30
KLFT 75 60 64 49 / 10 30 80 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
