FXUS65 KBOU 282132
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
235 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING 
WITH SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE UP TO 700MB ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE ATTM. 
MOISTURE STILL IN THE MID AND UPPER LVL VARIETY AND STILL LOW LVL 
MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING...EVEN ACROSS SRN WYOMING. WEAK UPSLOPE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOW LVL MSTR 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER THE FRONT RANGE. SPLIT FLOW 
PATTERN IN PLACE WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM 
DIVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN BRANCH WILL SEND A WEAK 
RIPPLE ACROSS NRN CO AND STILL SOME WEAK ASCENT NOTED IN VERTICAL 
VELOCITY FIELDS THROUGH EARLY SUN AM. LATEST 18Z NAM A BIT WETTER 
THAN 12 RUNS OVER THE FRONT RANGE BUT GIVEN LACK OF CURRENT PRECIP 
ACROSS WYOMING WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. WILL 
NUDGE THE FOOTHILLS UP TO LIKELY FOR ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH.  
OVER THE URBAN LOCATIONS...JUST SOME FLURRIES OR A DUSTING OF SNOW. 
THE MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP WILL BE SAGGING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD SUNDAY 
MORNING AND WILL GO WITH A QUICKER ENDING OF LINGERING FLURRIES WITH 
MOST LOCALES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. FURTHER COOLING ON 
SUNDAY WITH READINGS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S.     

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY...STILL A MESS BEYOND THAT. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD BREAK 
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS...NUDGED 
TEMPS UP MONDAY AND DOWN A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE LIFT NORTHEAST OF US. MODELS HAVE 
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL A PRETTY 
DRY ENVIRONMENT. SHALLOW COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EAST... 
WHILE ANYONES GUESS WHAT WILL BE HAPPENING ALOFT IN THE THURSDAY 
THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. EACH MODEL RUN REMAINS DIFFERENT WITH 
SHORTWAVES FROM THE NORTH OR WEST...OR A LOW TRYING TO UNDERCUT AN 
UPSTREAM RIDGE. LATEST TRENDS ARE MORE TOWARD THE INITIAL COLD POOL 
SHIFTING EAST AND SOME KIND OF TROUGH DEVELOPING AGAIN 
UPSTREAM...KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR AWAY BUT POTENTIALLY GIVING US A 
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS 
POTENTIAL FOR A WARMUP AND/OR WINDY PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 
THE TWO TROUGHS. EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR...THOUGH IT IS 
NOT REALLY COLD AND THERE COULD BE SOME WARMING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS 
IF IT GETS BREEZY.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE N-NE THROUGH MUCH OF 
THRU LATE TNT THEN BECOMING LIGHT/VRB. LOW LVL FLOW TO MOISTEN UP 
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY OF -SN STILL 
EXISTS WITH BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 05Z-12Z TNT. HIGHER PROBABILITIES 
OF NO SNOW ACCUM AND JUST FLURRIES. LOWER CHANCES OF ACCUM UP TO 1/2 
INCH...ESP AT BJC/APA.  

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

$$

ENTREKIN/GIMMESTAD