FXUS62 KJAX 030828
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
328 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
...BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE RAINS RETURN FRI AND SAT...
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER TROF COVERS MUCH OF THE US WITH WHAT IS
LEFT OF UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED OUR AREA ON WED OPENING UP OVER THE
E OH VALLEY. BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WELL S OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE IS JUST SHIFTING INTO OUR NW ZONES. SFC COLD
FRONT IS SE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
REMAINS SW TO W WITH SLOW DECREASES IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
BEHIND IT.
.SHORT TERM...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED BEST BY THE NAM...AND
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN THRU THE DAY. MAY BE A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT HAVE LEFT MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THE 1ST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON WED...BUT STILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER NE FL.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THRU THE AREA WED EVENING WILL STALL
OVER S CENTRAL OR S FL TODAY. MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
BROAD US TROF WILL DEVELOP WAVES ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE BOUNDARY. MOSTLY STRATIFORM
RAINS WILL SPREAD N ON FRI WITH LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE LATE FRI
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE SHIFTING E. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
AVERAGE CLOSE TO AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF NE FL WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OVER SE GA.
.LONG TERM...QUIETER PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY COASTAL SHOWERS AROUND PERIPHERY OF E US HIGH
PRESSURE AND POSSIBLE WEAK COASTAL TROF. A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PASS N OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE
WEEK NEAR NORMAL AND EDGE WARMER BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LOWER CIGS ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH WEST WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS AT BUOYS NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SO WILL
CONTINUE HEADLINE TIL 15Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER GULF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 65 40 55 43 / 0 0 30 70
SSI 68 46 58 48 / 0 0 60 70
JAX 70 45 58 47 / 0 10 60 70
SGJ 71 50 61 53 / 0 10 70 70
GNV 71 46 57 48 / 0 10 70 70
OCF 73 48 59 50 / 0 10 70 70
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
CARROLL/ZIBURA
