FXUS64 KMOB 271302 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...[MARINE AREA]...AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN
MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST 6 HRS. FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH TODAY WHICH RESULTS IN DECREASED WINDS AND
SUBSIDING SEAS. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH HAS MOVED LITTLE...LATEST MARINE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WIND SPEEDS WERE COMING DOWN. THUS...WE
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE AL/WRN
FLORIDA COASTAL WATER ZONES...REPLACING THESE WITH CAUTIONARY
WORDING FOR LITTLE WHILE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. /10
WILL LET THE FREEZE WARNING EXPIRE AT 7 AM AND WILL REMOVE
HEADLINES IN THE ZONES. /10
.AVIATION...[12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24HRS. /10
..................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......................
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) DEEP UPPER TROF AXIS FROM THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IS PROGGED TO PIVOT EASTWARD...WELL
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. AS THE TROF LIFTS
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD...A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF COULD GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO MAKE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES. NAM/GFS MOS CLOSE ON FCST TEMPERATURES. OFFICIAL
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS LOOK TO BE BELOW SEASONAL. /10
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY DECENT
AGREEMENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SATURDAY EVENING AND BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE NEAR ZONAL
UPPER FLOW THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND FRONT WITH
THE SYSTEM AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING
AS IT APPROACHES AND WILL LIKELY STALL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SPLIT UPPER FLOW WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CAL WILL SET
THE TABLE FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
STARTING IN THE WEST POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING...SPREADING
WEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. LITTLE CAPE AND JUST WEAK INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BUT SOME
DECENT DIVERGENCE WITH THE H25 JET MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA...SO
WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RAIN. AFTER ANOTHER
COOL...BUT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING START TO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAY SEE SOME LOW 70S BY
MONDAY...MORE LIKELY TO THE EAST WHERE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL BE
THE LAST TO START. /11
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)BY TUESDAY EVENING THE GFS HAS
A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE EURO
BACK SOUTHWEST A FEW HUNDRED MILES. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE GFS LOW
IS NEAR THE VA CAPES AND THE EURO JUST NORTH OF MOBILE. THE GFS
SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY NOT PLACE ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND WOULD ONLY EXPECT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EURO TRACK WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A WARM SECTOR
INTRUSION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. SINCE IT WOULD BE LATER I
WOULD EXPECT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SOME HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO
GO WITH THE BETTER SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT. EITHER WAY A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK CLEARING UP AND DRYING OUT. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
NEXT SYSTEM IS NOT AS COLD. /11
&&
.MARINE...WINDS BECOME EASTERLY SATURDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. SEAS LOOK TO
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND. WIND SHIFT EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ON DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF A WAVE OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
WITH THE LOW FORMING UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW IS
FAVORED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A BUILDING TREND IN SEAS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. /10
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
PANHANDLE TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE. NOT QUITE
AS DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL STILL EXPECT TO SEE SURFACE
HUMIDITY DOWN NEAR 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 63 37 64 47 / 00 00 10 05
PENSACOLA 61 40 65 49 / 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 61 44 60 47 / 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 61 30 64 38 / 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 61 31 65 42 / 00 00 10 10
CAMDEN 60 32 64 41 / 00 00 05 10
CRESTVIEW 63 30 65 34 / 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 5 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
