FXUS64 KSJT 052258 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
458 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE NORTH BY
DAYBREAK WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...
CEILINGS LIFTING BY NOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT
72 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BACK AROUND 60. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WERE CHALLENGING FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...I BELIEVE NUMBERS CLOSE TO MEX MOS GUIDANCE
LOOK REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
LIKELY ON TUESDAY...I DECIDED TO GO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE MEX
MOS GUIDANCE.
AS FOR SHORT TERM RAIN CHANCES...THE NAM AND GFS GENERATE LIGHT
QPF MAINLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO INDICATE
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...I DOUBT THE MOISTURE WILL BE THERE.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LONG TERM DO NOT LOOK GOOD. ANOTHER SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS FRONT WILL BRING
STRONGER SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN...RETURN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SIGNAL THE START OF ANOTHER WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE...I DECIDED TO GO WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR NEXT SATURDAY A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW MEX MOS
GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 36 58 33 43 38 / 0 10 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 34 62 34 53 44 / 0 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 34 60 35 59 47 / 0 10 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/15
