FXUS63 KDLH 261801
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1201 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE CWA AT MIDDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE NOW MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF CLEARING OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW RUNS. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT OVERALL THINK MVFR WILL BE THE RULE
THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME LOWERING OF CIG HEIGHTS AGAIN DURING
THE EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS PROBABLY BREAKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT
ON FRIDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY MID CLOUDS
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
UPDATE...
INCREASED SKY COVER TODAY AND LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES. CAA WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AND WILL REMAIN IN
CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SHORT TERM
NAM/RUC GUIDANCE. AREAS WEST WILL SEE SOME CLOUD BREAKS
TODAY...BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUD AND STRATOCU WILL DROP SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN IRON COUNTY AND EASTERN ASHLAND
COUNTY...THOUGH VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH DECREASING DEEPER LAYER SATURATION (850-700). LATEST OBS ON
THE HURLEY WEBCAM INDICATE SOME FLAKES...AND IRONWOOD HAS BEEN
WAFFLING WITH 2-3SM VISBYS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WRN GRT LKS REGION SITUATED BTWN
EXITING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SE AND AN APPROACHING SFC RIDGE TO THE
W CENTERED OVER THE CEN DAKOTAS. THE RESULT HAS BEEN AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FA WHICH HAS KEPT WINDS GUSTY OUT OF
THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LK SUP WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN NEARSHORE ZONES
FROM SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE THROUGH 10 AM THIS MRNG. THE
AUTOMATED STATIONS AT KGNA/KCKC HAVE BEEN REPORTING GUSTS OF 30-40
KTS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM FCST FOCUS ON ONGOING LK EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ALONG
THE GOGEBIC RIDGE IN SE BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. KDLH AND
WAOW TV RADARS ARE PICKING UP ON LIGHT ECHOES /15-25 DBZ/
STREAMING S OVER LK SUP...MAKING LANDFALL IN NRN WIS. THE BEST
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FOUND ALONG THE STEEP TERRAIN FROM MASON TO
GURNEY. THE ILLUMINATED WEB CAM IN THE TOWN OF HURLEY HAS BEEN
SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE SN SHOWERS FOR THE PAST 1-2 HRS. NO
ACCUM HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SPOTTERS BUT SN IS VISIBLY ACCUMULATING
ON THE GASSY SURFACES IN HURLEY. THE ROADS ARE VISIBLY WET/SLUSHY.
DUE TO TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING...EXPECT THE WET
SURFACES TO FREEZE TO CREATE SLICK ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE LES AREA THROUGH NOON HOUR...THEN DECREASED
POPS FOR AFTRN. THE RUC13/NAM12 IN AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPS
CONTINUE TO DROP...INCREASING DELTA-T VALUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...KIWD
SOUNDING/RH FIELDS DEPICT DRIER AIR QUICKLY WORKS E OVER REGION
AFT 15Z...AND WINDS DECREASE IN STRENGTH LIMITING ENHANCEMENT.
LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF ANOTHER INCH...MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS IN ERN WIS ZONES THIS
MORNING. LESSOR AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE SHORE OF LK
SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPR 30S. LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING CABLE TO IRONWOOD AND
MERCER.
NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD E ACROSS MN TODAY...CENTERING OVER
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS...ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. DECREASED LOWS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO LATEST MAV
GUIDANCE...BUT STILL RUNNING WARMER THAN MET SUGGESTS. DAY SHIFT
MAY NEED TO CONTINUE COOLING TREND FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...X-SECTIONS/BUFKIT SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADS OVER
NCEN/NE MN GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY CLOUD COVER COULD
INFLUENCE MIN TEMPS BY 5-10 DEGREES.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
CROSSES SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS DISAGREE ON ON THE DEPTH OF
THIS TROF AND ITS SFC REFLECTION...ALONG WITH PCPN IMPACT. WILL
FOLLOW THE 00Z/26 ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL SOLUTIONS AND BROUGHT A SMALL POP
TO THE FAR NW PART OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROF WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE
FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...RESULTS IN LOW POPS.
A LONG WAVE TROF WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
VERY LIGHT SNOW TO THE FA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NW WI WHERE CAA WILL INTERACT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. WEAK RIDGING COVERS THE FA SUNDAY
NIGHT. LES IS POSSIBLE IN NW WI WITH NW WIND/CAA OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA ON MONDAY WITH
MORE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 23 37 26 / 10 10 0 10
INL 28 17 37 24 / 10 0 10 10
BRD 33 23 43 26 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 34 20 40 21 / 20 0 0 10
ASX 34 24 40 23 / 40 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
DONOFRIO/DAP
