FXUS62 KTBW 141847
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
147 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009
...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AGAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FAIRLY DRY SW FLOW
ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO THE
W ATLANTIC AND SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TO KEEP LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVERNIGHT
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE LAND AND SEA FOG OVER THE E GULF
AND INLAND WATERS. WILL CONTINUE WORDING OF AREAS OF DENSE 1/4
MILE FOG AND EVENING/NIGHT SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATER TUESDAY CLEARING SKIES TO AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS ESPECIALLY INLAND.
INCREASING MEAN LAYER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY INLAND
AND NORTHERN AREAS. COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASING FLOW AND CHANCE POPS AHEAD AND
ALONG FRONT. FRONT TO STALL OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING
INTO THE REGION WITH BREEZY N-NE FLOW DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
BIT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...BEGINS ALOFT WITH RIDGING
OUT IN THE FAR WESTERN STATES...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TX...AND
A LOW LINGERING NEAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS HOLDING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
RESIDES ACROSS THE CWA. WITH TIME THE TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OVER THE GULF...DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES AND FORMING A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THESE
FEATURES SLIDES INTO THE EAST GULF AND OVER WEST CENTRAL/SW FL
FRI...REACHING ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY SAT. THERE HAVE BEEN
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/DGEX/ECMWF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOW
THEY ARE FALLING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INTO OR OVER THE GULF. FOR THIS FORECAST HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS AND CLOUD COVER THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND THEN THEM CLEAR SLOWLY
STARTING SAT. TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN
COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE WAVE PASSES. FOR
WINDS HAVE FAVORED THE MORE NE TO N DGEX/ECMWF RATHER THAN THE GFS
WHICH VEERS THEN AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR RULES NOW BUT AGAIN WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SEA FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS MOVING BACK ONSHORE...FROM SRQ NORTHWARD. TAFS BEGIN
WITH SOME BR 04-05Z WITH IFR-LIFR VSBY OR CIGS EXPECTED LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY TUE MORNING. VFR RETURNS LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS THE E
GULF WITH SE-SW FLOW KEEPING HIGH DEW POINTS AIRMASS OVER COOLER
WATERS PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA
FOR BREEZY NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS TO END THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 81 65 76 / 10 10 20 30
FMY 66 84 64 81 / 10 10 20 30
GIF 65 83 63 76 / 10 20 20 30
SRQ 65 81 63 77 / 10 10 20 30
BKV 62 83 59 75 / 10 10 20 30
SPG 68 81 66 75 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM- ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
