FXUS63 KDLH 050530 AAB
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1130 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.UPDATE...
SNOWFALL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN
IN THE BAND FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO WRN LK SUPERIOR. INCREASED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ISOLATED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS WITH AROUND AN INCH
ELSEWHERE. THE LATEST RUN/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND 925-850 OMEGA SHIFTS GRADUALLY EAST AFT 09Z...FOCUSING
THE SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF NRN DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD
COUNTY...MAINLY FROM CORNUCOPIA TO SAND BAY AND MADELINE
ISLAND...WHERE ISOLATED 2-5 INCH AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE INTO SATURDAY AFTRN.
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR ICE FREE LAKES ACROSS THE FA WILL
PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
2-3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAY BREAK. THE LAKE PRODUCED
SNOW WILL DRIFT EAST AFFECTING COMMUNITIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THESE LAKES. THIS INCLUDES LAKE OF THE WOODS...PELICAN
LAKE...VERMILLION LAKE...CASS LAKE...LEECH LAKE...MILLE LACS
LAKE...AS WELL AS ISLAND LAKE NEAR DULUTH. THE LAKE PRODUCED SNOW
WILL DRIFT EAST AFFECTING COMMUNITIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THESE
LAKES. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE ONLY A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
UPDATE...
CURRENTLY MONITORING A VERY NARROW SN BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG A BDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SAWYER...TO
CARLTON/ESKO...PROCTOR...WEST DULUTH/SUPERIOR...AND OVER THE
WATERS OF WESTERN LK SUP TO THE WRN APOSTLE ISLANDS. SNOWFALL
SPOTTERS AT ESKO, SAGINAW, AND IN W DULUTH REPORT MODERATE SNOW
AND A HALF INCH OF NEW ACCUMULATION THIS EVENING. INCREASED TO
LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS NARROW CORRIDOR AS THE RUC/NAM12 SHOW THE
AXIS OF BDRY LAYER DIVERGENCE AND 925-850 MB OMEGA RESIDE IN THIS
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY A HALF INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH UNDER
THE SNOW BAND. NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...FROM CORNUCOPIA TO THE
SAND BAY HAS THE BEST CHC TO SEE AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE AS
THE RUC/NAM SUGGEST THE MAIN BAND OVER LK SUPERIOR SAGS SOUTH
ALONG THE SHORE AND OVER THE APOSTLE ISLANDS THROUGH SAT MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS WILL VARY AND OCNL DROP TO IFR IN
THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. CONDS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SAT AS THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FADE...
UPPER VORTEX STILL BRINGING VORTICES THROUGH THE REGION...CURRENTLY
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. WSR88-D SHOWS A BAND OF LES JUST OFF SHORE OF THE
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEING AIDED BE WEST WINDS WITH 8H TEMP OF
-15 THEY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WRF SIM SHOWS
ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY OVR LS SUPERIOR FOR 36HRS.
ELSEWHERE...KEPT THE FLURRIES GOING OVERNIGHT...BUT AS DRIER AIR
AT MID LEVELS IS ADVECTING INTO THE REG ION WE'LL SEE AN END TO THE SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWER...KEPT SOME SNOW IN THE ERN REGIONS...THE
MN ARROWHEAD AND FAR NRN WI.
BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM MOS GUIDANCE AS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT
HIGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SFC LOW HEAD OUT FROM SRN STREAM AND MOVES
INTO EARN MN...THRU CENTRAL WI. ABEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS NRN WI...BUT CAN FINE TUNE AREA LATER.
LTTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY...WITHMAINLY FLURRIES OVR THE ARROWHEAD AND
NRN WI...AS REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
EXTENDED...TUE THRU FRI...
MAJ WEA FEATURE OF THE PD WILL BE DEEP SFC LOW PRESS SYSTEM LIFTING
OUT OF THE SWRN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPR LVL S/WV. STRONG
WAA/ISENT LIFT INTO WRN GRT LKS DURING EARLY STAGES. MODELS IN
RSNBLY GOOD AGMT ON A MORE OR LESS SRN KS-NRN IN-SERN MI TRACK OF
SFC LOW FROM TUE THRU WED. THIS WOULD PUT OUR CWA N OF THE MAX SN
BAND. HAVE PUT IN HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW...BUT COULD UPGRADE TO
LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME AND MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT TRACK. LES WILL HANG ON ALG THE S SHORE
THRU EARLY THU BEFORE NLY WINDS BACK TO THE W. THEN SFC HIGH PRESS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE THU NITE AND FRI DRY FOR NOW...BUT WITH
CONTD CYC FLOW ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF WE WILL NEED TO
INTRODUCE AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. DAY TIME HIGHS
SHUD BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE TEENS THRU THE PD...WHICH IS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE. HAVE OVRNGT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON AMT OF CLD CVR AS THE SYNOPTIC LOW PASSES TO THE S. IF WE
MAINTAIN A THICKER CLD CVR...NITE TIME LOWS WILL NOT DIP AS LOW.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 10 22 10 20 / 60 20 10 10
INL 3 16 5 17 / 40 20 10 10
BRD 5 22 10 20 / 20 20 10 10
HYR 11 24 11 24 / 30 20 10 10
ASX 9 26 16 25 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
GRANING/BERDES
