FXUS64 KBMX 270526
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1126 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF IS EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS A WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE CLOUDS MAY
GLANCE PARTS OF ETOWAH AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM GENERALLY IN THE 40S...BUT A FEW 30S
ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON THIS CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING AND ARE NOW 30 DEGREES OR LOWER IN
MANY PLACES. 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATES THAT THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE STILL BLOWING PRETTY GOOD AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO LAST
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EVEN WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...THE COOLING POTENTIAL
WILL NOT REACH ITS ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM. CURRENT FORECAST TREND WAS
DOING REALLY WELL AT 9 PM. UPDATE ADJUSTMENTS WERE GENERALLY TO THE
HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SPATIALLY...TRYING TO BETTER
DEPICT OUTLYING AREAS BASED ON TRENDS.
HAVE A SAFE THANKSGIVING EVENING FROM ALL OF US AT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.
75
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA TAFS.
/61/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 242 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GOOD COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
HAVE BEEN CLEAR ALL DAY BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY MANAGED THE 50S
MOST LOCATIONS WITH WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD LESSEN OVERNIGHT BUT NEVER CALM AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT MAXIMUM COOLING POTENTIAL WITH LOWS FALLING OFF TO
NUMBERS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE VERY PLEASANT DAYS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND 60S SATURDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE. COOL
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 30S. NOT QUITE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND MODIFYING AIRMASS YIELDING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE NEXT RAIN MAKER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WEST OF ALABAMA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO ALABAMA ON MONDAY. EXCELLENT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST
AND THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST. THUS THE AREA SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF ANY PRECIPITATION BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. GENERALLY ACCEPTED
MEX POP/TEMP NUMBERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST QUICKLY BECOMES MESSY AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW, THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY CUT OFF OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO,
BEGINS A QUICK TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS. RAIN
SPREADS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF
AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO, MAINLY WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING BY THURSDAY. WITH ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK AND USED A BLEND OF HPC/MEX/MEN. LOWS SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL...ROUGHLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
