FXUS63 KLBF 262123
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER QUAD CITIES. STRONG WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE STREAMING ON THE BACKSIDE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SUBTROPICAL AND PACIFIC FEED INTO THE SYSTEM.
AT H5 LARGE BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM KEEPING THIS UPPER SYSTEM
FROM MOVING EAST. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND HAVE USED A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST.
WILL KEEP WARNING FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY GOING TILL 00Z WITH RETURNS
JUST ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING SOUTH. MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY AND THE PINE RIDGE. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
WINDS STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS AND WEATHER GENERALLY
ON THE DECREASE. CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT. HAVE 3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH AROUND 10 INCHES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND
THE O NEILL AREA. WILL CARRY LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH FLURRIES
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLED UNDER LOWEST
GUIDANCE 3 TO 5 DEGREES. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWERED MORE WITH FRESH SNOW. H5 RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT SOME ON THE
TEMPERATURE RISE. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WEDNESDAY WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS NEAR MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND HAVE TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURES SOME AND MAY
HAVE TO TRENDED DOWNWARD IF GFS PANS OUT. 

&&
.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 24 HOURS AGO. SNOW 
COVERAGE AND WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED LEAVING MAINLY VFR/MVFR 
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION CONTINUES TO BE THE OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 
OVER 35...THOUGH THESE HAVE NOT BEEN REPORTED AT THE KLBF TERMINAL 
SITE IN PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WILL STICK IN ACROSS THE 
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 
CONDITIONS...WITH IMPROVE NT TO VSBYS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO 
UNLIMITED AS SNOW DIMINISHES. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE 
DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL. 

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ005>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ004.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER
AVIATION...13