FXUS63 KFGF 101705 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1105 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH TOO
MOIST. NAM RH FIELDS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT
CLOUD TRENDS...SO WILL USE FOR THE DETAILS.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE REFLECTION EVIDENT
BY WIND SHIFT LINE AND ENHANCED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COINCIDENT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WEAK LIFT...REMOVED ALL MENTION
OF FLURRY ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME
SOLAR AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 5 ABOVE. COLDEST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. 

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CEILINGS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH WAS OVER AK/GULF OF AK AND 
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA RESPECTIVELY. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD 
BUT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH REMAINS OVER CANADA. PROGRESSIVE ZONAL 
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN US BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.  

NAM AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE 
OVER ONT. GFS AND GEM WERE SIMILAR BUT FARTHER EAST WITH UPPER 
RIDGE. ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT THAN THE GFS OVER THE 
LAST FEW RUNS AND SO WILL USE THE ECMWF AND NAM. 

LONG TERM...SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 
LITTLE CHANGE. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

ROGERS/HOPPES