FXUS65 KBOU 301110
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
405 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...NICE WARMUP IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  MID 
LEVEL TEMPS WARM 6-8C FROM YESTERDAY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO HELP 
THE WARMING.  THERE IS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS LURKING ALONG THE 
NORTHERN BORDER BUT IT CONTINUES TO THIN AS IT TRIES TO ADVANCE INTO 
NORTHERN COLORADO.  AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 60F IN DENVER AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR 
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...THE WARMER 
AIRMASS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT WARMER 
MINS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARD A DRASTIC 
COOLING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND ECMWF 
SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN.  
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME 20 DEGREES OF COOLING FROM TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST 
COLORADO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD AIR FIRLY ENTRENCHED 
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  COOLING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST 
PACKAGE.  ALSO INCREASED THE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS 
THAT AN AREA OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  
QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS THAT RISING MOTIONS WILL BE OVER 
EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING... BUT WILL CHANGE TO SUBSIDENCE BY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AFTER WEDNESDAYS RAPID COOL DOWN IT LOOKS LIKE 
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN COOL WITH A LITTLE BIT OF 
MODERATION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.  OVERALL...THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR 
THE WEEKEND ARE STARTING TO LOOK ACCEPTABLE AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER 
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND PERIODS OF NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN 
U.S. WILL RESULT.  

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET 
THROUGH TONIGHT.  TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL... 
MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS AT KDEN WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST 
TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

$$

BARJENBRUCH/KDRBY