FXUS61 KRLX 221910
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVING WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON GIVING SOME FLURRIES. LIFT DIES 
THIS EVENING. UNTIL LOW GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE WEEK THE LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND SO SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE.  PLAYED 
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A BIT HIGHER THEN MOS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
AROUND.  ALSO WENT A BIT BELOW MAX WED WITH SNOW STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
AND BRINGING OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE STILL PREVALENT WITH NAM BEING THE
SLOWEST AND OVERALL ALL MODELS A TAD SLOWER. SO HELD OFF ON THE START OF
PRECIP ON THURSDAY TIL LATE AFTERNOON AND BRING POPS IN FROM SW TO
NE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CAT POPS ON FRIDAY. 85H TEMPERATURES
WARM AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO
HAVE PRECIP START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. FRONTAL
PASSAGE FAIRLY QUICK AND ONLY EXPECTING 1/4 TO 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN
AT THE MOST ON THE SNOW PACK. WE WILL SEE SOME RISES IN THE
RIVERS WITH SOME SNOWMELT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS
RIVER WISE. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT 
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX...THEN FINALLY TO 
SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS 
FROM SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE 
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE 
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 
THE MOST ACTIVITY DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. IN 
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND AS THE 
TROUGH DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK FOR 
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND TO KEEP CLOUDS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  CIGS WILL BE VFR SOUTH TO MVFR ACROSS CENTRAL 
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTH. VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS WITH A BIT 
OF FOG AROUND TONIGHT.  SOME IFR VSBYS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN RIVER 
VALLEYS 06Z TO 14Z. 

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
SYSTEM IMPACTS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH RAIN AND 
POSSIBLE IFR. FREEZING RAIN ALSO A THREAT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AAR/SL/JS
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...AAR