FXUS63 KGID 260823
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
223 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF VERY NICE DAYS ARE COMING UP TODAY AND 
FRIDAY.

QUIET WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS 
IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS BETWEEN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND UPPER LOW 
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS 
BUILT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S COLD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRATUS BANK WAS CLIPPING 
EASTERN NE...WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NE AND KS. 

TRANQUIL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST TODAY...EXPANDING 
ONTO THE PLAINS. LIGHT WEST WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING 
THE DAY EAST OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST SOME
PASSING CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 5-10C
TODAY...BUT WON/T MIX QUITE THIS HIGH. HOWEVER...MIXING TO NEAR
875MB...DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL STILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE A BIT MILD FOR LATE NOVEMBER...ONLY HITTING THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE PICK DAY
OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE PLAINS AND 850MB
TEMPS SOAR TO 14-16C. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS 
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE NORTHERN STREAM 
WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
INTO SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT IT 
WILL COOL TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS STILL WELL 
ABOVE AVERAGE. NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH 
THE DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS AS THE 
LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. TEND TO PUT A LITTLE MORE FAITH IN THE ECMWF IN THIS TYPE 
OF SITUATION...WHICH ALSO HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE GEM. THESE 
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY/SUNDAY 
NIGHT...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH INHERITED FORECAST SO NO REAL 
CHANGES MADE HERE. WE THEN CATCH A BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY 
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY 
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS 
SCENARIO...AND IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A PRECIP MAKER /MAYBE 
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES/ BUT IT DOES LOOK COLD. IN FACT...BOTH 
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING IN WITH 
850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING TO NEAR -15C BY LATE NEXT WEEK. 
NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF THAT HOLDS TRUE IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE 
WINTER. 

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. STILL VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KGRI
THROUGH THIS FORECAST...WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS 
FROM TIME-TO-TIME. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

KB