FXUS63 KDDC 062142
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
342 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
AFTER A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, ATTENTION
WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COLD AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA AND WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEHIND THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY
NOT START UNTIL LATE MONDAY SO A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW, MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE SHOULD BE TOO WARM SO DECIDED TO
UNDERCUT NAM 2M TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WEST AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FIRST ROUND OF SNOW COULD BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TO AREAS FROM DDC TO HAYS, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NEAR HAYS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC AND UPPER SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM NESS COUNTY NORTHWARD TO HAYS AND
WAKEENEY PER ONGOING WINTER STORM WATCH. HIGH SNOW RATES MAY OCCUR
GIVEN THE PROGGED MOIST NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSE LIFT. GIVEN THE STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS AND PROGRESSIVITY OF THE SYSTEM, VERY STRONG SFC
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA. WINTER STORM WATCH WAS
MAINTAINED. WE ENTERTAINED THE NOTION OF CHANGING TO A BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF PER
COORDINATION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO, BUT
MAY NOT REPRESENT REALITY SINCE THE NEW EQUATION MAY NOT HANDLE
THE HIGH WINDS AS WELL. FOR A 40 MPH WIND AND 15F TEMPERATURE, THE
OLD EQUATION YIELDS -29F WIND CHILL BUT THE NEW FORMULA ONLY GIVES
-8F.
DAYS 3-7...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES BEYOND TUESDAY'S WINTER STORM WILL REVOLVE
AROUND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE INCREASES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND CONTINUED ONGOING BOUNDARY
LAYER COLD ADVECTION WILL MEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WILL BE SLOWED
ON WEDNESDAY, AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID TEENS OVER THE NEW SNOW COVERED
AREAS AROUND WAKEENY AND HAYS, TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART. AS THE DRY COLD AIR CONTINUES SETTING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WE MAY SEE OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES YET OF
THE SEASON WITH POTENTIALLY 0 OR BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST SECTIONS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND EVEN THE TEENS IN OUR SNOW-FREE
SOUTHWEST. BY LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
ZONAL, WHICH WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TOUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, DRAWING MORE MILD
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
QUITE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH SNOW MIGHT BE LEFTOVER ON OUR
EASTERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST SECTIONS, BUT AN OVERALL WARMING
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPECTED AROUND FREEZING AT HAYS TO MID 40S IN THE WEST.
&&
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR WINTERY
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING DRIZZLE. NORTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THE DEPTH OF THE COLD SATURATED AIR HAS
BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
-SN AT ALL THREE TERMINALS DDC, HYS AND GCK. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, AS WELL AS IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS IN THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE AT INDIVIDUAL SITES WILL BE FORECASTING WHEN
MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP, BUT CERTAINLY
NOT IN THE NEXT 8 TO 12 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 13 21 20 28 / 0 20 50 70
GCK 12 21 20 26 / 0 20 50 70
EHA 13 27 23 41 / 0 10 20 30
LBL 13 26 22 40 / 0 10 40 50
HYS 11 20 19 22 / 10 20 90 90
P28 17 27 22 37 / 10 10 50 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-062>066-075>081-085>089.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-045-046.
&&
$$
FN24/33
