FXUS64 KMOB 051216 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
607 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...AN INTERESTING NIGHT, ONE OF OUR 
EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW EVENTS ON RECORD. MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED 
A COLD RAIN, HOWEVER, SNOW AND SLEET DID OCCUR OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN 
ZONES, GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM LUCEDALE TO GROVE HILL. ANY 
REMAINING PATCHY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL QUICKLY MELT JUST AFTER 
SUNRISE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING ON WHAT THE VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH CAUSED THE 
PRECIPITATION HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH TO EASTWARD THIS MORNING. TODAY 
WILL BE RATHER COLD AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 
LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME 
LIGHT BY LATE AFTERNOON. HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR INLAND COUNTIES 
EXCEPT STONE AND GEORGE MISSISSIPPI.
08/KJC

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR SUNDAY 
WITH A RAIN FREE PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL 
REBOUND EARLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AREAS 
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS.
/77

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...MINOR CHANGES DONE TO 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MAJOR STORM SYSTEM  
PUSHING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AROUND MIDWEEK. THE RUNS 
YESTERDAY SHOWED A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AROUND 
MIDWEEK. THAT FEATURE HAS NOW BEEN MINIMIZED BEING ABSORBED INTO THE 
FLOW OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LOW. IN ANY CASE THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER THE 
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEE THIS AS A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL MINIMA.
/77

.AVIATION...LINGERING STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CREATING 
IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO 
EAST FROM EARLY THROUGH LATE MORNING.  PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES 
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
/08 JVW

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND IS 
NOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...NORTHERLY WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A 
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON 
THEN INTENSIFY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. 
/08 JVW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE OUT BY THIS MORNING. A
RAIN FREE EPISODE WILL RESUME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH RAIN RETURNING BY MONDAY. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
OUTSIDE CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DAYTIME DISPERSION
IN THE 20S AND 30S. RAIN DIMINISHING AROUND MIDWEEK THROUGH THURSDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE 40S AND DISPERSION WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
FOR TIME OF DAY.
/77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      50  28  57  47 /  05  00  10  30 
PENSACOLA   53  31  55  47 /  05  00  10  20 
DESTIN      53  37  54  48 /  05  00  10  10 
EVERGREEN   48  23  55  39 /  05  00  10  10 
WAYNESBORO  48  23  54  39 /  05  00  10  40 
CAMDEN      47  22  53  38 /  05  00  05  20 
CRESTVIEW   52  25  57  40 /  05  00  10  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...AND 
     WILCOX. 

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER 
     BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE. 

FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. 

MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...AND WAYNE. 

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...AND STONE. 

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS 
     OUT 20 NM. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 
     NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 
     TO 60 NM. 

&&

$$