FXUS65 KPUB 252223
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
323 PM MST WED NOV 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING)

...MILD WEATHER ON THANKSGIVING...

CURRENTLY...ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A 
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS STAYING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.   COLD 
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.  BREEZY NORTHWEST 
WINDS ARE MOSTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THEY ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB.  

.TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO 
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND 
LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.   
UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON WITH NAM12 HAVING +6C AT 700MB BY THE END OF THE DAY.  
WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND WEAK LATE NOVEMBER SUNSHINE...DID NOT 
GO AS WARM AS 12Z MET GUIDANCE FOR THE PLAINS.  STILL WILL BE A MILD 
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S IN 
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH DRY AIRMASS KEPT POPS NIL AND EXPECT ONLY SOME 
CIRRUS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  --PGW--

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

PRIMARY LONGER TERM ISSUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND POTENTIAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND THEN AGAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ALLOWING DRY AND UNSEASONABLE WARM LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS CONTINUE 
TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH
THE 12Z/25TH ECMWF MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 12Z SUNDAY WHICH THEN MOVES INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 00Z MONDAY AND THEN INTO EASTERN
KANSAS BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 18Z/25TH DGEX HAS THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA AT 12Z SUNDAY...WHICH SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
BAJA BY 12Z MONDAY. FINALLY...THE 18Z/25TH GFS40 HAS A CLOSED LOW
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA AT 12Z SUNDAY WHICH MOVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO BY 12Z MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS DURING THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALSO...INCREASING WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED 
FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THEN FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO THE CWFA BEFORE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTS REGION WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT MOVING INTO 
THE REGION. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$