FXAK68 PAFC 301407
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIBERIA TO WESTERN AK THIS MORNING WITH AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AK. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE BERING NORTH OF ATKA WITH RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST AK. A VIGOROUS WEATHER FRONT IS AFFECTING
SOUTHWEST AK AND THE AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING WILL MOVE TO THE TIP OF THE AKPEN. ASSOCIATED NORTHERN HALF OF
FRONT DISSIPATES LATER TODAY OVER WESTERN AK...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION MOVES FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO THE CENTRAL GULF. AT THIS POINT
THE FORECAST TENDS BACK TO THE EC SOLUTION WHICH MOVES THE BERING LOW
NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER BETHEL ON WED AND INTO NORTON
SOUND THU. MEANWHILE THE FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES INLAND OVER
SOUTHEAST AK AND THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...STORMS AND GALES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME ALL SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLD AIR FLOWS BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW. DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOP WED BENEATH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE
DELTA AND WESTERN CAPES AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUE AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END WED BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...AS THE WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND HIGH WIND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM
AND PORTAGE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WARMING ON SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL END THESE CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED ON UPWIND SIDES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND ALASKA RANGE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THOMPSON PASS INTO
TUE. HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FOR CORDOVA LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER HIGHER ELEVATION INLAND
AREAS THROUGH WED...WITH A MIX AT SEA LEVEL AFTER TODAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW SHOOTS NORTH AND
BRINGS STORMS AND GALES AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN THU THROUGH SAT.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131 155 161
         WINTER STORM WARNING 125 145
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 135
MARINE...STORM 120 125 130 172 175 176 185
         GALE 121 129 132 138 140 141 150 155 170 179 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 09