FXUS63 KICT 241145
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KCNU TODAY...BUT KICT COULD GET A FEW
HOURS OF DECENT SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. BIGGER CONCERN
IS THE STRONG WINDS...WHICH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
KRSL AND KSLN WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE MUCH SNOW...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY MID-AFTERNOON IF NOT BEFORE.
SCHRECK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND SPEED POTENTIAL.
TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ABOUT ONE
STATE FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS
TIME. AS A RESULT...WE ARE SEEING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WHICH IS CREATING AN INTERNAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY (PV) ANOMALY.
LATEST PROFILERS WERE SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW STARTING TO BACK AHEAD
OF THIS INTERNAL PV ANOMALY WHICH IS HELPING WRAP UP THE WARM AIR
ALOFT INTO THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...I WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF
THIS CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS/HEIGHT CHANGES ARE SHOWING SIGNS THAT THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AS THIS OCCURS...THIS
SHOULD HELP BRING THE SNOW IN OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KICK INTO HIGH GEAR WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35KTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. THIS WILL
CAUSE A SEVERE REDUCTION IN THE VISIBILITY DUE TO DENDRITIC
SPLINTERING. THIS DENDRITIC FLAKE SPLINTERING MAY CAUSE WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AS A RESULT...WE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING
GOING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WE DID TOSS AROUND THE IDEA OF
CANCELING THE WINTER STORM WARNING. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. EVEN THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT THE WIND
WHIPPED SNOW WILL CAUSE SOME REDUCTION TO THE VISIBILITY. IN
ADDITION...CENTRAL KANSAS HAD QUITE A BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON
TREES AND POWER LINES YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY CAUSE SOME POWER OUTAGES.
TONIGHT:
THIS TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST NAM DOES TRY TO LIFT THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST
A LITTLE MORE THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. WE ARE FAVORING THE
GFS/SREF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WHICH BRINGS THE CLOSED CLOSER TO ST.
LOUIS. THE REASON WHY WE ARE FAVORING THESE SOLUTIONS IS BECAUSE IT
APPEARS THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS STARTING TO BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH NOW WHICH MEANS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD START ITS OCCLUSION PHASE
DURING THE NEXT 12HOURS AND BEGIN ITS JOURNEY NORTHEAST. AS A
RESULT...WE SHOULD START SEEING A TROWAL FORM ON THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THIS CLOSED LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD START SEEING THE HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THIS SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH HIGH SPEEDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY
AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE KICKS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY DIVES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PARK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF POLAR ENERGY DIVES SOUTH WHICH WILL JUST
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR ALONG WITH BRUTAL WIND CHILLS. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTH.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST.
COX
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST DATA IS SUGGESTING BRUNT OF WINTER STORM MAY BE TARGETING
FAR EASTERN KS AND POINTS EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE WINTER STORM FARTHER EAST FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS. CONSEQUENTLY...THINKING PRECIPITATION DURATION/INTENSITY
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...STILL
ANTICIPATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE WINTERY PRECIPITATION FOR
MAINLY KICT-KCNU MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LINGERING INTO THE EVENING FOR KCNU. AM NOW
THINKING THE ONLY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT KCNU THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...COMPRISED OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. KICT 1-3 INCHES...KCNU 3-6
INCHES. LIGHTER SNOW ANTICIPATED AT KHUT-KSLN-KRSL WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH. VERY STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS FOR KICT-KCNU.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 28 13 23 13 / 90 50 20 10
HUTCHINSON 26 12 21 11 / 70 40 20 10
NEWTON 27 13 22 12 / 90 50 20 10
ELDORADO 29 13 23 13 / 90 70 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 31 14 25 15 / 90 60 10 10
RUSSELL 22 9 19 8 / 60 30 30 10
GREAT BEND 23 10 20 9 / 50 30 20 10
SALINA 26 11 19 8 / 80 40 30 10
MCPHERSON 25 12 20 10 / 80 40 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 36 14 25 16 / 100 100 10 10
CHANUTE 35 14 24 15 / 100 100 20 10
IOLA 35 14 23 14 / 100 100 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 35 14 24 16 / 100 100 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ071-072-095-096-099-100.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
&&
$$
