FXUS63 KGLD 231751
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1051 AM MST WED DEC 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
315 AM MST WED DEC 23 2009

CERTAINLY A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...TIMING
AND LOCATIONS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION
JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER MOVING
EAST. AHEAD OF THIS MAIN UPPER LOW...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW TO MID LEVELS /850-600 MB/
WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN WHICH WILL ASSIST IN CHANGING PRECIP FROM
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW. THIS CHANGEOVER IS ALSO
COINCIDENT WITH THE ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT A PRE-FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST...BUT AFTER DAYBREAK WILL
GO WITH ALL SNOW. EVEN WITH THE VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT...DOZENS OF ACCIDENTS OCCURRED ON I-70 WITH SEVERAL
FATALITIES IN SLIDEOFFS AND ROLLOVERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COMPLEX DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW NEAR FOUR CORNERS OPENING UP AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AS A SECOND STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OVER ALBERTA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT
IN THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT OVER IOWA FOR A TIME
ON FRIDAY. 

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND IN WEAK TO
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE SECOND UPPER LOW DROPS IN FROM
CANADA TOMORROW THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW ACTION WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY. THEN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WRAP AROUND SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY GIVE THE AREA ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. IT APPEARS THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD TYPE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
NE/KS THU-FRI. CURRENT FORECAST DELAYS THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS
HERE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN IMPACT THU-THU NIGHT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS.

THERE IS NO PLAN TO MODIFY ANY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR
NOW...BUT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WERE EASED BACK A BIT
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE. CURRENT THINKING IS 4-8
INCHES ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHEST TOTALS CONTINUING TO BE PLACED
IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR MCCOOK AND NORTON. CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING OF SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

DLF
&&

.AVIATION...
1050 AM MST WED DEC 23 2009

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE COMMON AT
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. IFR CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP TOWARD THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. OF CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WINDS. CURRENT
WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20G30KT
RANGE BY ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE YET AGAIN AFTER ABOUT
14Z UP TO THE 30G40KT RANGE. EVEN THOUGH ONLY LIGHT SNOW MAY BE
FALLING DURING THESE PERIODS OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR OR WORSE UNTIL THE
WIND DIMINISHES AGAIN...WELL PAST THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

BLM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR 
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR 
     NEZ079>081.

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ090>092.

&&

$$