FXAK68 PAFC 031311
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE YUKON DELTA WITH AN OCCLUDED
FRONT STRETCHED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. DEEP LOW
SPINNING UP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF 
IT WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WHICH
IS BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE. 

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AND
EXIT THE STATE TONIGHT AS THE YUKON DELTA LOW GETS EJECTED EASTWARD
IN THE UPPER FLOW. 

BY FRIDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
STRETCHING FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO KOTZEBUE
SOUND. THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BE SLIDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND A 
STREAM OF WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE "FIRE-HOSING" THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. 

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IS HOW FAR
EAST PRECIPITATION WILL GET BETWEEN THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER ALASKA
AND THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. 

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT BLOCK (OMEGA STYLE) 
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS TENDS TO WANT TO RETROGRADE THE HIGH 
INTO SIBERIA FAIRLY QUICKLY AS AN IMPRESSIVELY DEEP ARCTIC LOW 
BUILDS OF THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. 

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE. 
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150 155 160 165 170 172 180 185. 
         GALE WARNING 132 138 171 175 176 179. 
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185. 
FIRE WEATHER...NONE. 

LUDWIG DEC 09