FXUS63 KGLD 111721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2009

FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY TEMPERATURES. LONGWAVE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE POLAR REGION TO THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH 
HAS BROUGHT THE EXTENDED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL MODIFY OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL UNDERCUT 
THE TROUGH AND AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE 
BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW COVER WILL HAMPER THE WARM UP 
INITIALLY...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT MELTING OVER THE WEEKEND 
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM 
GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. 
HOWEVER NEITHER WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THINK WILL 
ONLY RESULT IN PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND. 

NEXT BIG PROBLEM WILL BE A RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE 
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE 
AGGRESSIVE...BUT BASED ON THE UPPER PATTERN IT HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM 
THE CANADIAN MODEL. A SHARP TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL 
DRIVE THE COLD AIR SOUTH...AND THE GFS APPEARS TOO WEAK WITH THE 
FEATURE AND IS TRYING TO PHASE IT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THUS  
WILL BEGIN TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TUESDAY. DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN THE MIDDLE AND 
END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AND 
FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR. 

024
&&

.AVIATION...
1015 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2009

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME CIRRUS AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL WITH LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS.

50
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$