FXUS62 KTBW 101907
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
207 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF IT AND CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN BEHIND.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SETUP A NORTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ABOVE 850 MB THE WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST SETTING UP WEAK OVERRUNNING THAT WILL
KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA MOVES NORTH. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FURTHER SOUTH. THEN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...FRONT REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ON SUNDAY
WITH STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THIS FRONT
THEN DECAYS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT
THIS NEXT FRONT TO EXIT TO THE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRIER AIR BRINGING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
SECOND FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...TERMINALS VFR TO MVFR AT THE MOMENT BUT EXPECT
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND A
FRONT WILL PROVIDE TEMPO -RA WITH BR AND IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTH AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH TO FMY/RSW BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH SOME AND
TURN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 49 66 58 78 / 20 30 40 50
FMY 59 76 61 82 / 20 30 30 40
GIF 51 66 58 80 / 20 30 40 50
SRQ 55 70 59 79 / 20 30 40 50
BKV 44 60 55 79 / 10 30 40 60
SPG 54 66 60 77 / 20 30 40 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
