FXUS63 KICT 091700
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1100 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TODAY WILL DRIFT INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE KS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SPREAD WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
IS NOW APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL AFFECT SE KS THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
GUSTY NW WINDS ARE STILL CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER CENTRAL KS.
HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WHICH WILL BRING THE BLOWING SNOW TO AN END. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES-IN FROM THE WEST.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE EARLY MORNING GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD COLD TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT.
TODAY-THU:
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DOMINATING THE AREA EARLY TODAY.
THE STRONG NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS LEAD TO
SURFACE WINDS FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA....BUT DO NOT
PLAN ON GOING WITH A WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN
AFTER 12Z TODAY.
OF COURSE THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE TOP OF THE NEWLY FALLEN
SNOW...HAS LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OF MINUS 10 TO MINUS
15 ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AS COLD ADVECTION
KEEPS WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW MINUS 10 FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING SOME DIFFICULT CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 UNTIL
MIDDAY...WHEN SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX.
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP A LID ON TEMPS TODAY AFTER THE WIND
SLACKENS...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL
KS. TEMPS WILL ALSO STRUGGLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS ONLY REACHING THE
LOWER 20S. COULD SEE SOME RECORD COLD MAXES FALL ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AS WELL TODAY. (RECORD COLD MAXES TODAY... RSL 12 IN 1972....SLN 11
IN 1972).
RECORD COLD TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT..AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CALM WINDS AND
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHERE THE FRESH SNOW COVER IS
LOCATED. PREFER COLDER NAM/WRF GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND MINUS 10 IN CENTRAL KS....WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE. SO WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPS FALL ALONG
INTERSTATE 70. (RECORD LOW...RSL -5 IN 1972).
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME ON THU...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL...AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO TX.
FRI-SAT:
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO THE RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE THU INTO
EARLY ON FRI AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL
HELP MODERATE TEMPS FOR FRI INTO SAT AS UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BEGINS
TO RELAX. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT RAIN/SNOW CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...SO
WILL REMOVE THIS FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOESNT
RETURN AS FAST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT.
BUT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COULD PRESENT A DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN KS EARLY ON SAT AS LOW LAYERS BEGIN TO
SATURATE. WILL NOT MENTION THIS JUST YET...AS ECMWF ISNT NEARLY AS
BULLISH ON THIS CHANCE. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND SNOW PACK ACROSS
CENTRAL KS WITH THE POSSIBLE THREAT OF DENSE FOG. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AS WELL BEFORE MENTIONING.
SUN-TUE:
POLAR VORTEX OVER CANADA LOOKS TO WEAKEN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND... WITH MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. BIGGEST INCREASE TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS WHERE LACK
OF ANY SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW THINGS TO MODERATE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON ANY RESIDUAL SNOW COVER IN CEN KS AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPS.
MODEL CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FOR SUN OR
MON...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THIS JUST YET...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
KETCHAM
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AS
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY LATE MORNING AND DECREASE EVEN MORE IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO KANSAS THUS GIVING WAY TO BETTER AVIATION
CONDITIONS.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 18 3 26 15 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 14 -1 23 12 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 15 0 20 13 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 18 2 24 15 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 22 8 31 18 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 11 -11 17 3 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 11 -10 18 6 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 12 -9 19 6 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 13 -2 20 10 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 25 8 33 20 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 21 8 30 17 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 19 7 27 17 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 24 7 32 19 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
