FXUS61 KOKX 280315
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1015 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A INTENSE STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING WILL HEAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...PRODUCING A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE AREA...BUT RADAR SHOWS INCREASING
RETURNS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT VIA RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
LIFT FROM VORT PIVOTING AROUND DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF
OF MAIN. TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 10 DEGREES SUGGEST
RESULTING PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY SPRINKLES. ELSEWHERE...STRONG
W-NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LACK OF ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE CHANCES OF PRECIP EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...WHERE BANDS OF LEFTOVER
UPSTREAM LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COULD STILL SNEAK IN AIDED BY UPSLOPE
FLOW.
THE NYC METRO AREA...MANY COASTAL SECTIONS AND THE HIGHEST INLAND
ELEVATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED WINDS CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DO SO ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS THE STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...925 MB WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOTION TO THE REAR OF
THE STORM PASS OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL WIND
ADVISORY EVENT WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 45 MPH LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS BUT STILL GUSTING UP
TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...NEAR 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH
MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUN. WEST WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
ON SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOTH
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LONGEST BREAK LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS GFS CONTINUES TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE.
SOME COLDER AIR DOES MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
LIQUID...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-END VFR CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. VFR FCST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.
MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG
W-NW FLOW...RANGING FROM 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS...AND WILL BE 35-40
KT AFTER 05Z SAT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...AND WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS
BY SAT EVENING.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE +/- 20 DEGREES OF 310 THROUGH ABOUT 05Z
BEFORE SETTLING ON 270-290 DEGREES.
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION...AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIND FORECAST.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...VFR.
MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
TUE-WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AN INTENSE STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL LIFT UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SAT...PRODUCING W-NW GALES WITH GUSTS 40-45
KT THROUGH SAT MORNING...AND UP TO 35 KT SAT AFTERNOON. QUICK PEEK
AT 00Z NAM SUGGESTS BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL STORM FORCE GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MID
MORNING SAT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER SAT NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON SUN WILL VEER WINDS AROUND TO
SW LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING.
THE HIGH WILL MOVES OFF AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUN NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REACHING/GUSTS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER COLD FROPA MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEGATIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
2 TO 3 FT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS OF WESTERN LI...NY HARBOR...AND WESTERN LI SOUND TO LOW WATER
BENCHMARKS. A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS DURING THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ002>006-011.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BG/DW/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
