FXUS62 KMLB 080926
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK WITH OVERNIGHT FOG...
...BRIEF COOLDOWN THURSDAY BEHIND NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE AND WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT SE WINDS
TO THE SOUTH AND E-NE WINDS TO THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS TEMPERATURES DROP VERY CLOSE TO
THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS. BL WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
DEGREE OF FOG TOWARDS MORNING...AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAVORED AREAS ACROSS LAKE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT AND WILL LAST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
COMBINATION WITH THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE FAR NORTH AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MERGING WITH A STRONGER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE LOW 80S...WITH MID
80S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID TOO WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARM AND
MUGGY OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.
WED-FRI...POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRONG ATTENDANT SFC LOW WL
LIFT NNE THRU THE UPR MS VLY AND WRN GREAT LAKES...LEAVING COLD
FRONTAL BDRY TO ONCE AGAIN "LAY OUT" E-W AS IT SAGS INTO CTRL FL
EARLY THU...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT STALLS ACROSS SOUTH FL THU
NGT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK SLOWLY NWD LATE FRI-FRI NGT (ASSUME ECM
WILL BE CLOSER TO REALITY IN SHOWING THE BDRY INVOF CTRL FL LATE FRI
NGT). INCRSG SW FLOW WED WILL MAKE FOR A WARM/BREEZY DAY...WITH
INCRSG CHC FOR SHRA ACROSS THE NRN HALF CWA WED NGT. BEST CHC FOR
POPS (40) WILL BE THU AS THE BDRY SLOWLY SAGS SWD THROUGH THE CWA.
ONCE AGAIN QUICK RETURN TO POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW BY FRI...WITH
ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR COASTAL SHRA TO REDEVELOP
AND PUSH WWD AND ONSHORE. WENT SLGTLY HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST
...GIVEN THE FLOW REGIME AND WHAT OCCURRED AFTER THE RECENT FROPA.
SAT-MON...WEEKEND LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AGAIN WITH BREEZY SRLY
FLOW. ECM SHOWS A STRONGER WRN EXTENSION OF ATLC DLM RIDGE THAN
THE ECM...AND AS A RESULT IT HOLDS BACK THE NEXT WEAK "BACK-DOOR"
FRONT LATE SUN TO NR THE FL/GA BORDER...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS IT
SAGGING SWD INTO THE CTRL PENINSULA. GIVEN THE ONGOING REGIME AND
ITS RESULTANT RELATIVELY POOR DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY IN THE DAY 5-7
MODEL PROGS...IT'S HARD TO SAY WHICH WILL WIND UP BEING CLOSER TO
FRUITION. A CONTINUATION OF THE RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SEEMS TO
BE THE WAY TO GO ATTM...WHICH MIGHT FAVOR A LITTLE FATHER SWD PUSH
TO THE FRONT (I.E. THE GFS OVER THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE ECM)...
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE AS
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN
HIGH. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH E-SE WIND TO LIMIT THE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR VSBYS...BUT LOCAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. LOW CIGS WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WITH MAINLY PASSING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD -SHRA THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY
NORTH THE ORLANDO METRO.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BE SLOW TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
GRADIENT JUST TIGHT ENOUGH TO BRING EAST WINDS OF 10-15KTS THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POSITION OF
THE WEAK BOUNDARY OF THE SOUTH HAS WEAKENED WINDS OF THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WHICH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 10 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH OVER ALL THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BE 3-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.
WED-SAT...INCRSG S-SW FLOW ON TAP WED...AND COULD SEE A BRIEF 6-9HR
PERIOD OF WINDSPEEDS AROUND 20KT...ALBEIT OFFSHORE DURING THE TIME
OF TIGHTEST PGRAD/STRONGEST WINDS. SW FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHEST SEAS
WELL OFFSHORE AND INDEED LATEST WNAWAVE PEAKS SEAS AROUND 5FT. AS
SUCH...PLAN TO DEFER ISSUANCE OF ANY SCA (OR MORE LKLY SCA FOR WINDS)
TO DAY SHIFT GIVEN THE FCST BREVITY OF THE EVENT. NEXT PD OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS LOOKS TO BE WITH THE POST FRONTAL NRLY SURGE THU NGT-EARLY FRI
...WITH MDTLY BRISK WINDS CONTINUING FRI/SAT AS WINDS VEER TO NE...
EAST AND EVENTUALLY SE BY SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 82 71 82 62 / 20 20 30 40
MCO 83 66 83 63 / 20 10 30 40
MLB 83 72 84 66 / 20 10 20 30
VRB 84 72 85 68 / 10 10 20 30
LEE 82 69 82 57 / 20 20 30 40
SFB 84 68 83 61 / 20 10 30 40
ORL 83 68 83 64 / 20 10 30 40
FPR 84 71 85 67 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
