FXUS61 KAKQ 280311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CRNT FCST IN GUD SHAPE. STILL SOME SC HANGING TUFF ACROSS NRN NECK
ON E TOWARD THE ERN SHORE. XPCTD STRNGST WNDS TO REMAIN ACROSS ERN
SHORE AREAS...OTW SLOWLY DMNSHG WNDS XPCTD OVRNITE. LOWS 30-40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDING OVR THE REGION THEN OFF THE SE CST WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX SAT THRU SUN NGT. AFTR A COLD START...SNY AND COOL SAT WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 50S. CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN SAT NGT WITH
LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S TO LWR 40S. MSTLY SNY AND MILDER ON
SUN...AS SW WNDS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HI. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S.

COLD FRNT WILL THEN APPROACH FM THE WNW SUN NGT...THEN PUSH ACRS
THE REGION MON AFTN THRU MON NGT. CHC FOR SHRAS ALL AREAS MON
AFTN...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON NGT OVR THE SE CNTIES.
AT THIS TIME...FRNTL BNDRY LUKS LIKE AN ANA-FRNT...WITH MOST IF
NOT ALL PCPN OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRNT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE MID 50S NW TO THE UPR 60S EXTRM SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE GRT LKS INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL 
SLOWLY TREK TWRD THE RGN ON MON AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM RIDES ALONG IT. 
LOOK FOR SHRA ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO ERLY TUE BEFORE ENDING NW
TO SE AS HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE RGN. STRONG UPR
LVL SYSTEM DVLPS OVER THE SRN CALIF ON SAT AND DIGS FURTHER OVER
NRN MEXICO/SRN TX INTO MON. SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE GULF COAST
TUE/WED AND QUICKLY MOVES TWRDS THE RGN ON THU. GFS/ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH H50 FLOW...BUT QUESTION REMAIN ON TRACK
AND DVLPMNT OF ACTUAL SFC FEATURES. THIS MAY BE DUE TO HOW MUCH
INTERACTION OF THE NRN STREAM FLOW GETS INCORPORATED INTO THE SRN
STREAM FLOW. ECMWF TRIES TO INCORPORATE THE TWO LEADING TO MORE OF
A INLAND SFC TRACK...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TWO APART TILL AFTER
SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CHCS/AMOUNTS OF PRECIP PER USUAL WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND FCST WILL STAY
FAIRLY IN THE MEDIUM OF SOLNS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT SBY.

WIND VELOCITIES AT PHF AND ORF HAVE VARIED WIDELY FROM 5 KTS TO
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND DECIDED
TO GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD (GUSTS TO 15-18 KNOTS). NAM SHOWS
INCREASED LOW LEVEL WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND KEPT SOME GUSTS AT ALL THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT RIC.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SKIES SHOULD STAY CLEAR ON SAT. WENT CLOSE
BUT A LITTLE BELOW LAV WINDS FOR DAYTIME SAT.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE SUN. ANOTHER WX SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
HOURS OF PCPN AND LOWER CEILINGS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. A RETURN
TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY TUE AS WINDS TURN BACK TO W/NW.
EASTERLY WINDS RETURN WED WHICH COULD BRING MVFR CONDS BACK INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE
AREA BY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND DROPPED GALES TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE LOWER BAY (SOUTH OF POINT COMFORT)...
CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HENRY. NAM
SHOWS A LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
DURING THAT TIME BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. SCA CONTINUES INTO LATE SATURDAY.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE IN THE REST OF THE BAY ZONES AND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND PARRAMORE ISLAND
UNTIL 5 AM EST. FURTHER NORTH...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD STAY QUITE STRONG AND GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SUN/MON AS FLOW LOOKS TO TURN SSW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON WITH HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED
ALONG/BEHIND PASSAGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...CCW/LSA