FXUS63 KGLD 291122
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
422 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
231 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING IN GENERAL AN AMPLIFIED
FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THEN IT
TURNS INTO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH
MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW FURTHER EAST.

AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS AND NAM WERE TOO STRONG WITH THE SPEEDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
BETTER BUT DID NOT HAVE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SEGMENT STRONG
ENOUGH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE NOT THAT FAR APART.
HOWEVER...THEY WERE A TAD TOO FAR EAST WITH THE TROUGHINESS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
OVERALL...THE NAM WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE ECMWF WAS DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE SLIGHT EDGE TO THE
UKMET.

THIS WHOLE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT MOVES/DIGS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS ARE HAVING A HORRIBLE TIME GETTING A
GRASP ON THIS WITH A BIG SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. COMPARING THE
CURRENT FLOW PATTERN TO THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...AND THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT TO THE SREF AND ENSEMBLES FAVORS A SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN/SOLUTION WITH A STRONGER/FURTHER WEST
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

NO ONE MODEL CAPTURES THIS FROM THE BEGINNING TO THE END. INITIALLY
WOULD FAVOR A UKMET/CANADIAN BLEND WHICH IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM
THE NAM. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE TOO PROGRESSIVE. WITH
TIME...THE UKMET SPEEDS UP SOME WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS DOWN AND BY
THURSDAY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AND ARE
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. SO WOULD FAVOR THE BLEND OF THESE MODELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWING LITTLE TO NO RETURNS AND SATELLITE
ALREADY SHOWING A DECREASING CLOUD TREND TO THE NORTHWEST.
MOISTURE...LIFT AND UPSLOPE EVEN MORE SCANT THAN YESTERDAY SO
CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN BY LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE NOT TOO DIFFERENT
FROM EACH OTHER AND FROM CURRENT FORECAST. WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST EASY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. CONSIDERING
HOW THAT WORKED ON SATURDAY WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO ABOVE THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE...WHICH MAY END UP MAKING THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY. MINS MAY END UP
OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING AS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICK IN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS LOOK TO HAVE SPED UP THE INCOMING
FRONT A LITTLE. WILL HAVE A FAIRLY WARM START AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM UP RAPIDLY WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS. CAA
STARTS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH SOUTHEAST
HALF GETTING THE MOST HEATING. SO WILL TRY TO GRADIENT THE
TEMPERATURES IN THAT MANNER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FROM THE ECMWF DURING THIS PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE GFS AND IT WANTING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR...EVEN IF
MODIFIED DUE TO NO SNOW COVER...TOO FAST. CURRENT FORECAST IS LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD AND ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWN IN SPOTS. WILL
KEEP CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
NORTH TO SOUTH JET IN SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN SPITTING OUT
EXTREMELY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF. MOST OF WHATEVER MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY BE
A FEW FLURRIES BUT AM CONTENT AT THIS TIME TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUTTING ANYTHING IN.

THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
420 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

FOR THE 12Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. THE SKY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER ABOUT 22Z.

FOLTZ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$