FXUS65 KABQ 251000
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE COLDEST
READINGS WILL COME TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...TODAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS THE TAIL END OF A POLAR JET STREAK REMAINS
OVER NM AND A CHILI SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH KEEPS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A TROUGH ALOFT
ROTATES SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTWARD
BY EARLY IN THE COMING WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE EN ROUTE FOR SOUTHERN
NM. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
AND MAY CROSS AS AN OPEN WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE PRECIP...INDICATING IT MAY START OVER
WESTERN NM AS EARLY AS MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR
TO FAVOR THE AREA SOUTH OF I-40 WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS AND A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
COMING WORK WEEK...AND PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST IN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS.
44
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SMALL AREA OF IFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE SRN SAN JUAN MTS EARLY
THIS MORNING...CREATING OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE FRI MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ALONG/LEE OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS AS WELL
AS THE NW PLATEAU...INCLUDING TAF SITE KFMN. PEAK GUSTS WILL RANGE
FROM 25-35KTS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. DPORTER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT DECENT PRECIPITATION TO
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT WILL MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATE
THROUGH THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY/TONIGHT. ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST FROM 25
TO 35 KTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG/LEE OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
BE TOO HIGH TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION
RATES ACROSS THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER...PARTICULARLY WITHIN
THE WRN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL SHIFT INTO THE ERN UNITED STATES FOR SUNDAY...
LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...WINDS
WILL DROP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POOR VENTILATION AT MOST LOCALES EXCEPT
THE FAR NE PLAINS. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE A TAD WARMER SATURDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY BUT WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW LATE DECEMBER
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF DEEP SNOWPACK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE UPCOMING
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE THEIR TUNE. AFTERNOON
READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE LAST WEEK IN 2009.
DPORTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 27 2 26 3 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 22 -12 24 -8 / 10 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 25 -6 24 -6 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 32 -5 27 -4 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 28 1 26 4 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 33 0 28 0 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 31 3 32 4 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 47 18 43 15 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 19 -18 22 -14 / 10 10 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 -7 25 -2 / 5 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 25 -4 30 2 / 5 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 -12 22 -9 / 10 5 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 18 -17 19 -13 / 10 10 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 -11 20 -9 / 10 10 5 0
TAOS............................ 24 -11 23 -8 / 5 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 30 2 30 6 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 -3 25 0 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 27 4 26 6 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 11 26 10 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 14 30 14 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 34 6 31 6 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 6 31 7 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 8 34 8 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 7 32 7 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 42 13 38 14 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 28 6 24 4 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 28 10 27 7 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 25 8 25 7 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 13 33 13 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 42 12 33 16 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 36 12 31 16 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 25 2 31 2 / 5 5 5 0
RATON........................... 29 -2 30 4 / 5 5 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 28 3 27 6 / 5 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 33 11 35 15 / 5 5 5 0
ROY............................. 31 8 32 11 / 5 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 9 37 11 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 36 9 36 10 / 5 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 12 38 13 / 5 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 39 13 37 15 / 5 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 40 14 39 16 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 42 13 41 14 / 5 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 43 21 44 20 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 44 15 40 15 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 42 16 37 17 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44/46
