FXUS62 KJAX 291431
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
931 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA NOW SHUNTING CIRRUS PLUME EAST OF OUR AREA. REMOVED MORNING
FROST WORDING FROM ZFP/GRIDS...AND RE-WORDED SKY CONDITIONS AS
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FOR OUR FL ZONES THIS AFTN. GA ZONES MAY START
TO SEE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS CREEP OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY SO
KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING THERE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE LOW 40S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON
TOP OF THE CWA SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT W-N WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SSW LATER THIS AFTN AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WX...ADJUSTED DEW PTS SLIGHTLY AS OBS WERE INDICATING VALUES
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. APPEARS THAT BLENDING IN OBSERVED
TRENDS WITH PROJECTED MIN DEW PTS THIS AFTN DID NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT
ON FORECAST MIN RHS...WITH VALUES LIKELY DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL
VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND NE FL BY AFTN. QUESTION IS HOW LONG LOW
VALUES WILL OCCUR...AND BELIEVE THAT MOST ZONES WILL REMAIN AT 3
HOURS OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW RHS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST FOR AT LEAST 4 HRS. WILL HIGHLIGHT LOW RH CONCERNS FOR
DURATIONS OF 2-3 HRS IN AN UPDATED FWF (ESPECIALLY SINCE 60 DAY
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF N FL ARE DEFICITS AROUND 2-4
INCHES).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 44 74 46 / 0 0 10 30
SSI 69 51 72 53 / 0 0 0 20
JAX 72 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 20
SGJ 72 51 74 56 / 0 0 0 20
GNV 74 42 74 51 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 74 42 75 53 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
BAKER-COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/MCALLISTER
