FXUS61 KOKX 280535
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A INTENSE STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING WILL HEAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...PRODUCING A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOST PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE AREA...BUT RADAR SHOWS INCREASING
RETURNS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT VIA RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
LIFT FROM VORT PIVOTING AROUND DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF
OF MAIN. TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 10 DEGREES SUGGEST
RESULTING PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY SPRINKLES. ELSEWHERE...STRONG
W-NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LACK OF ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE CHANCES OF PRECIP EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...WHERE BANDS OF LEFTOVER
UPSTREAM LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COULD STILL SNEAK IN AIDED BY UPSLOPE
FLOW.

THE NYC METRO AREA...MANY COASTAL SECTIONS AND THE HIGHEST INLAND
ELEVATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED WINDS CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DO SO ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS THE STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...925 MB WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOTION TO THE REAR OF
THE STORM PASS OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL WIND
ADVISORY EVENT WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 45 MPH LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS BUT STILL GUSTING UP
TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH 
MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUN. WEST WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
ON SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOTH 
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA 
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LONGEST BREAK LATER TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE AND ECMWF THROUGH THE 
PERIOD AS GFS CONTINUES TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE.

SOME COLDER AIR DOES MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE 
LIQUID...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER 
HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FCST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG W-NW FLOW...RANGING 
FROM 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR 
COASTAL TERMINALS...RANGING FROM 25-30 KT WITH 35-40 KT GUSTS 
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH 15-20 KT WITH 25 
KT GUSTS BY THIS EVENING.

WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 270-290 DEGREES.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH EARLY 
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIND FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY 
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...VFR.
MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
TUE-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INTENSE STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL LIFT UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SAT...PRODUCING W-NW GALES WITH GUSTS 40-45
KT THROUGH SAT MORNING...AND UP TO 35 KT SAT AFTERNOON. QUICK PEEK
AT 00Z NAM SUGGESTS BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL STORM FORCE GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MID
MORNING SAT. 

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER SAT NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON SUN WILL VEER WINDS AROUND TO
SW LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING.

THE HIGH WILL MOVES OFF AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUN NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REACHING/GUSTS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. 
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER COLD FROPA MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEGATIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 
2 TO 3 FT TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS
OF WESTERN LI...NY HARBOR...AND WESTERN LI SOUND TO LOW WATER
BENCHMARKS. A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS DURING THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ067>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ002>006-011.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ338-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON 
     FOR ANZ335.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BG/DW/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...