FXUS62 KTAE 280645
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
CENTER OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH 
MONDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 
WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY 
FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM 
THE NORTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NORTHERN STREAM 
TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 
EARLY TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE FRONT WILL 
KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN IN PLACE MONDAY 
NIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER 
THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO A CUT-OFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVING 
INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

GUIDANCE STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS 
STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOLUTIONS DO APPEAR TO BE GETTING CLOSER. 
STRATIFORM PRECIP SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND 
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW RIDES UP AND 
OVER THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT 
NORTHEAST AND MOVE INLAND SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF 
COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT 
NORTH WITH THE LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE GULF 
COAST...THE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE TRI-STATE IS FORECAST TO BE 
SUBSTANTIAL...FURTHER FUELED BY A 100+ KNOT UPPER JET STREAK.

AT THE VERY LEAST...A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE 
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES 
HAVE INDICATED AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE... 
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK 
OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE RISK OF SEVERE 
WEATHER. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE 
WEATHER WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT 
LIFTS NORTH AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE BIG 
BEND. HOWEVER...STILL TOO MANY UNKNOWNS TO FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT 
SEVERE WX ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOL HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY EVEN BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES 
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD. THEN 
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 
ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE 
WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THEN 
FURTHER INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS IN 
THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. 

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 
HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TRICKY RH FORECAST FOR TODAY...MADE SO BY THE CIRRUS 
SHIELD STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THIS IS FORECAST TO KEEP 
HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT...THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY 
ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RH OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES. EVEN 
GOING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE DEWPOINT GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS 4 
HOURS OF CRITICAL RH...SO WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR 
TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO RECOVER BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EASTERN 
BIG BEND WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH DURATIONS...SO THE WATCH WILL 
BE CONTINUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  63 37 70 44 74/ 00 00 00 00 10
PANAMA CITY  65 46 72 55 74/ 00 00 00 00 10
DOTHAN       63 40 70 51 70/ 00 00 00 00 20
ALBANY       62 36 70 44 73/ 00 00 00 00 20
VALDOSTA     63 38 71 45 73/ 00 00 00 00 10
CROSS CITY   67 36 74 46 75/ 00 00 00 00 10  
APALACHICOLA 63 42 69 51 74/ 00 00 00 00 10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL BUT GULF AND FRANKLIN   
     COUNTIES.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:    
     DIXIE...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...MADISON...TAYLOR.
GM...NONE.  

&&

$$

BARRY/CAMP